Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are deadlocked in the Texas GOP Senate primary, setting the stage for a likely May runoff, according to a new Emerson College Poll released Thursday.
According to the survey, Paxton holds a razor-thin 27%-26% lead over Cornyn, with both candidates well below the 50% mark needed to clinch the nomination. Rep. Wesley Hunt draws 16%, while 29% remain undecided.
“Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided. With Wesley Hunt gaining traction at 16%, a runoff between the two candidates now appears likely in May,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in the analysis.
The Texas primaries are scheduled for March 3, with runoff elections set for May 26, if no candidate wins a majority in their primary.
Cornyn has represented Texas in the Senate since 2002, serving four terms and rising to Senate Majority Whip from 2019-21. A longtime establishment figure, Cornyn has played a central role in judicial confirmations and GOP legislative priorities.
Paxton is challenging Cornyn from the right, arguing the senator is too aligned with Washington leadership and insufficiently loyal to President Donald Trump’s agenda.
Among Texas Democrat primary voters, state Rep. James Talarico holds a narrow lead at 47%, with U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett close behind at 38% and 15% undecided.
“Talarico has built momentum among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while a majority of Black Democratic primary voters (80%) support Crockett,” Kimball noted. “Men also break for Talarico 52% to 30%, while women are about evenly split between the two Democrats, 44% for Talarico and 43% for Crockett.”
In head-to-head matchups, Cornyn holds a narrow edge over Talarico, 47% to 44%, with 9% undecided, while a Paxton-Talarico contest is tied at 46% apiece, with 9% undecided, according to the poll.
Against Crockett, Cornyn leads 48% to 43%, with 9% undecided, while a Paxton-Crockett matchup is also deadlocked, with each candidate at 46% and 9% undecided, the survey said.
Emerson College Polling surveyed 1,165 active registered voters in Texas from Jan. 10-12. The survey’s results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Mark Swanson ✉
Mark Swanson, a Newsmax writer and editor, has nearly three decades of experience covering news, culture and politics.
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