As Election Day approaches, former President Donald Trump is maintaining slim leads in key battleground states, according to recent polling data. With just 15 days left, Trump's campaign is ramping up efforts, focusing on these critical areas that could determine the race's outcome.
In the final stretch of the election, Donald Trump's campaign reports narrow leads in several battleground states and signs of potential gains in the national popular vote. Trump pollster John McLaughlin discussed the current state of the race on Monday's appearance on Newsmax's "Finnerty," pointing to improvements from previous elections.
"We're heading for a close election, but this is a lot better than where we were eight years ago and four years ago," McLaughlin said, referencing the 2016 and 2020 elections. He noted that the media and polling had grossly underestimated Trump's chances in both races.
"In 2016, they said it was a Hillary [Clinton] lock. In the RealClearPolitics polling average, she was ahead by 6 or 7 points," McLaughlin said. Despite polls showing Clinton with a strong lead, Trump ultimately won the election in a surprise outcome. Similarly, 2020 polling indicated a significant Joe Biden lead, but Trump lost by a narrow margin, "only 44,000 votes out of three states, out of a record 160 million."
In the 2024 race, McLaughlin emphasized that Trump is in a stronger position, especially in the battleground states.
"Now, we're virtually tied in the national popular vote, and it's possible that Donald Trump could get a majority of the popular vote," he said. "We're ahead by slim margins in all the battleground states."
States like Georgia and North Carolina are showing favorable trends for Trump, particularly with a decrease in mail-in voting compared to the 2020 election.
"The actual votes that you think are going to vote Republican are actually higher and favoring Donald Trump," McLaughlin said.
However, McLaughlin noted that Pennsylvania remains a challenging state, with Democrats maintaining an advantage in mail-in ballots, mainly through "ballot harvesting" efforts in Montgomery County and "Philadelphia to represent about a third of their vote totals and registration. But they're cannibalizing their own vote. So, it's looking very good, but they're cannibalizing their own vote," he added, suggesting that Democrats are exhausting their early voting strength.
With just over two weeks left until Election Day, McLaughlin highlighted Trump's intense campaign efforts.
"Donald Trump is a phenomenal candidate. He's determined. He's focused. He's really working the battleground states," he said. According to McLaughlin, Trump is actively campaigning in multiple states, including three events in North Carolina on Monday alone.
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Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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