Republican candidate Steve Hilton continues to lead in the race to become California's next governor, with Democrat billionaire investor Tom Steyer rising in the polls after Eric Swalwell ended his campaign, according to RealClear Politics.
The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Hilton at 17.3%, compared to Steyer’s 14.8%, giving the Republican a 2.5-point edge in the crowded primary field.
Chad Bianco, another Republican, follows closely at 13%, while a fractured Democrat field trails behind, led by Swalwell at 13.3% before his exit, and Rep. Katie Porter at 10.3%.
A new Emerson College poll conducted April 14–15 reinforces Hilton’s position, showing him at 17%, with Steyer and Bianco tied at 14%.
The survey highlights how Democrats remain divided in the wake of Swalwell’s departure.
"In the first Emerson poll since Eric Swalwell’s departure from the race for Governor, Democrats now split their vote between Tom Steyer (20%), Xavier Becerra (19%), and Katie Porter (15%), with Becerra gaining 15 points among Democrats without Swalwell on the ballot," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
The Emerson data also underscores Hilton’s strength with key voting blocs.
He leads among voters over 50 with 24% support and dominates among Republicans, who split 48% for Hilton and 40% for Bianco.
Independents remain fractured, with no candidate consolidating support.
Meanwhile, a KGTV/SurveyUSA poll taken April 8-10 showed Steyer briefly taking the lead at 21%, compared to Hilton’s 18%.
However, that survey was conducted during a period of upheaval in the race, as allegations surrounding Swalwell surfaced and endorsements were withdrawn.
According to the KGTV report, Steyer benefited from strong support among voters aged 35 to 49 and across several regions of the state.
Hilton, by contrast, led among Republicans, conservatives, higher-income voters, and residents in rural areas and the Inland Empire — a sign of a potentially durable GOP base even in deep-blue California.
Despite Steyer's gains, the broader trend suggests Democrats are still splintered among multiple candidates, while Republicans are consolidating behind Hilton as the race develops.
Across surveys, voters consistently rank the economy and cost of living as their top concerns — issues that could favor Hilton's message as Californians grapple with high taxes, housing costs, and economic uncertainty.
With months to go before the primary, the data indicates a volatile contest.
But for now, Hilton remains the candidate to beat, holding a steady lead while Democrats continue to divide their vote.
Charlie McCarthy ✉
Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.
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