Expert Says Voter Turnout Likely Similar to Past Midterms

Next week's elections' turnout will probably be no different from past midterms, an expert told The Hill on Tuesday.

In an interview on Hill.TV, Dan Cox, research director at the Public Religion Research Institute, predicted, despite the likelihood of more atypical voters, the overall low-turnout trend will probably hold.

"I think if you look at the typical midterm demographics, this one may be a little bit different where you see the groups that don't historically turnout in midterm elections, people of color, young people, Independents may see a little bit higher rates," Cox told the news outlet.

"But I think historically this is not going to be that anomalous from previous midterm elections."

Conservative analyst Henry Olsen said it is possible this election might see the most votes cast ever for a midterm, but it will not match a presidential year vote.

"I do think it will be a high turnout for midterms, but you still have the regular dynamics, which is that there are people who are presidential-only voters," Olsen told The Hill. 

A Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll found 40 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds said they were "likely to vote" in the midterms. The survey also found 54 percent of Democrats said they were "likely to vote," up from 51 percent in April. 

Forty-three percent of Republicans also said they were "likely to vote" in November, up from 36 percent in April.

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