Tags: voters | millennials | democrats | midterms | turnout

FiveThirtyEight: Dems' Hopes May Rest on Young Voter Turnout

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By    |   Tuesday, 16 October 2018 01:20 PM

Democrats might get a rare increased turnout of young voters – which are historically left-leaning – and they might have President Donald Trump to thank for it, according to a report by pollster and data analyst FiveThirtyEight on Tuesday.

"It's not certain that young voters will turn out at a higher-than-usual rate in 2018, but data does suggest it's possible," FiveThirtyEight elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley wrote. ". . . So combining the Democratic lean of younger voters with the perceived enthusiasm advantage of Democrats over Republicans in this year's midterm, it makes sense that we might see greater participation by young voters in a Democratic-leaning electoral environment."

Young voter enthusiasm is tied to the opposition to President Trump, too, so his own attempts to fire up the Republican base might be what lures the young Democrats to vote against his GOP, Skelley surmised.

"And if young people do turn out at an unusually high rate, it will be hard not to give President Trump much of the credit," Skelley wrote. "After all, IOP's spring 2018 poll found that 72 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds disapproved of the president and 58 percent preferred that the Democrats take control Congress in November."

IOP referenced there is Harvard Kennedy School's Institute of Politics, whose poll of young voters set a record of 37 percent saying they would "definitely" vote this November.

Over the past two decades, Skelley reported from the U.S. census, the high-water mark for actual young voter turnout was 2006 at 25.5 percent.

"That was also the last time Democrats had a successful midterm cycle," Skelley added. "Coincidence? Maybe not."

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Democrats might get a rare increased turnout of young voters - which are historically left-leaning - and they might have President Donald Trump to thank for it.
voters, millennials, democrats, midterms, turnout
269
2018-20-16
Tuesday, 16 October 2018 01:20 PM
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