Election statistician Nate Silver said Democrats are not certain to take the House in elections Tuesday — but certain factors are working against the GOP to keep their chances "fairly slim" of holding on to the majority.
"Democrats need a couple of things to go wrong to lose [Tuesday] because not very much is going right for Republicans," the FiveThirtyEight founder said in his final projections for the midterms.
Silver gave Democrats a roughly 86 percent chance of winning the majority in the House, which would require the party to pick up at least 23 seats Tuesday.
Silver argued Republicans still stand a chance of retaining the House majority thanks to a strong economy and favorably drawn districts. And Democrats will have to win the popular vote by at least 5 percentage points to secure the necessary House majority, he wrote.
Democrats, however, are aided by President Donald Trump's low approval ratings, the party's strong fundraising, a large number of GOP retirements, and a historical precedent of the president's party losing ground in the midterms.
"There's still a chance — about a 15 percent chance — that their voters won't turn out in the numbers they need, and they'll fall a few seats short," Silver wrote.
Republicans have a more favorable path in the Senate, where the party stands a roughly 80 percent chance of retaining the majority, Silver projected.
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