Tags: 2018 Midterm Elections | gizzi | early voting | blue wave

Early Voting Trends Point to Blue Wave

campaign signs crowded together outside a polling station in dallas

Campaign signs outside a polling station on the last day of early voting in Dallas on November 2, 2018. (Mike Segar/Reuters)

Monday, 05 November 2018 07:52 AM Current | Bio | Archive

With less than 24 hours to go before Election Day, more than 32 million Americans have voted early or by absentee ballots.

Democrats across the country may be poised for upset after upset.

Key to the early voting statistics is the large number of “independent” or “non-affiliated” voters coming out to cast early ballots.

In past elections, Republicans often skewed an edge over these voters.

But with Democrats having turned the midterms into a referendum on President Donald Trump, Republicans face a real blue wave.

A recent Harris poll found that only 35 percent of independents approve of Trump’s job performance.

But without Trump on the ballot, his supporters may be less energized to vote.

Republicans have typically done well in midterm elections because fewer people vote than in presidential years.

Not this time.

Votes cast so far in this election are way above the 27 million early votes in the midterm elections of 2014

Early voting is permitted in 37 states and the District of Columbia. In some states, it is impossible to determine the impact of the early voting on Senate races.

Missouri, which features a heated contest for the seat of Democrat Sen. Claire McCaskill, is one of 13 that doesn’t have early voting.

In Indiana, where Democrat Sen. Joe Donnelly is locked in a tight contest with Republican Mike Braun, no one can guess the impact of the 292,726 early votes because there is no party registration.

Here are some of the early-voting states and trends:


With several polls giving Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema a last-minute edge in the Senate race over Republican Rep. Martha McSally, the above-usual early voting by Democrats has GOP operatives worried. After two weeks of holding a 12-point advantage, Republicans were stunned to find Democrats suddenly trimming that edge. Of the 1,481, 695 early votes cast, 44.18 percent are by Republicans, 33.9 percent by Democrats, and the rest by unaffiliated voters.


Matt Walsh, publisher of the Florida Business Observer, last week predicted to Newsmax that the difference in the Senate race between incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson and GOP Gov. Rick Scott “will be about 2,000 votes.” Various late polls have given slight edges to either contender. If this is accurate, Republicans cannot be happy about the latest figures on early voting. Of 4,069,596 early votes cast, 40.8 percent are from Republicans and Democrats are right behind at 40.2 percent. Meanwhile, unaffiliated voters have casted 19 percent of the early votes. This is decidedly different from the early voting of 2014, when Republicans had a 4 percent advantage over Democrats.


Polls show a virtual tie between Republican Sen. Dean Heller and Democrat Rep. Jacky Rosen. But as of the weekend, Democrats led in early voting with 41 percent, followed by Republicans at 38 percent and all other parties and nonaffiliated voters at 21 percent. In populous Clark County and Las Vegas, where Rosen is from, the Democrat advantage was 45 percent to 34 percent for Republicans.


Some 1,378,840 Tennesseans voted early in the midterm elections, or just 50,000 fewer than the total electorate of the Volunteer State in the 2014 elections. Different polls have given the lead in the close Senate race to Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn or Democrat former Gov. Phil Bredesen. But Bredesen’s campaign team pointed with pride to the high turnout in Democrat-leaning counties. Davidson County (Nashville) had about 162,200 early voters, 7 percent down from 2016.


Republican activists who spoke to Newsmax voiced worry about the size of the early voting response in Texas: a record-breaking 4,337,435, with turnout in the Lone Star State’s 30 largest counties already surpassing the entire turnout in the 2014 midterm election. And Dallas and Travis counties are showing the highest turnout. Bad news for Republicans as these counties are Democrat strongholds with large black voting blocks. CNN reported that roughly 54 percent of the early votes were cast by women, which could be bad news for Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in his tight contest. Trump’s approval rating from women stands at about 35 percent in most polls.

John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.

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With less than 24 hours to go before Election Day, more than 32 million Americans have voted early or by absentee ballots.
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Monday, 05 November 2018 07:52 AM
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