President Donald Trump's order for a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is smart, but dangerous, as it raises the risk of a broader confrontation, Elliott Abrams, a former special representative to Iran, told Newsmax on Sunday.
The strategy could pressure Iran economically by restricting oil exports, but it carries significant geopolitical risks, particularly involving China, Abrams explained on Newsmax's "Sunday Agenda."
"It's a smart move, but a dangerous move," Abrams said. "Smart in the sense that we cannot allow Iran to export oil as it wishes, and nobody else in the world can have any access to the Strait of Hormuz.
"When I say it's dangerous, I mean that what happens if Chinese ships want to go through the strait to Iran to pick up oil and take it back to China?" he added. "That's a significant confrontation between the U.S. and China."
Abrams said the move signals that Trump is "raising the stakes," while potentially holding off on more aggressive actions such as seizing Iranian territory.
"He may have decided that taking an island is the next step, but not the first one now," Abrams said. "The peril to American Navy sailors from doing a blockade is much, much lower than taking an island which would be right near Iran."
He also pointed to the broader economic implications, noting China's reliance on Iranian oil.
"Ninety percent of Iran's oil goes to China," Abrams said. "China, 15% of its oil roughly comes from Iran. So if that strait is closed, they're going to be very short of energy pretty shortly. So it's a choke point not just for the international economy. It's a choke point for China."
Robert Pape, a University of Chicago political science professor, meanwhile, told Newsmax that the breakdown in negotiations over Iran's nuclear program marks a critical turning point driven by uncertainty over Tehran's enriched uranium stockpiles.
"What's going on is we're at an extremely critical phase," Pape said. "It's not just that the talks broke down, it's they broke down over the nuclear issue."
Pape said concerns center on large quantities of enriched uranium that may be dispersed or unaccounted for, increasing the urgency of the situation.
"What you are seeing is great fear by the Trump administration that the thousand pounds of 60% enriched uranium and the 10,000 pounds of five and 20% enriched uranium are dispersing, they may be used," Pape said.
"It's not because exactly they have the information, it's that they don't, and this is what is causing the issue," he said.
He warned that the collapse of talks, combined with a naval blockade, would place the U.S. further into what he has described as an "escalation trap," increasing the likelihood of direct conflict and risks to U.S. forces.
"We are heading back to the escalation track," Pape said. "We are deeper, deeper in the escalation trap that I've been explaining, and this is going to be dangerous for the 300 sailors on each of those destroyers."
Pape said the situation could soon lead to a ground operation aimed at securing Iran's nuclear material, which he described as extremely dangerous.
"We need to expect maybe the next 10 days, two weeks, that enriched uranium, we will actually send troops to go get that enriched uranium," Pape said. "That would be the most dangerous mission our special forces has engaged in since World War II."
GET TODAY NEWSMAX+:
NEWSMAX is the fastest-growing cable news channel in America with more than 30 million people watching!
Reuters Institute reports NEWSMAX is one of the top news brands in the U.S.
You need to watch NEWSMAX today.
Get it with great shows from Rob Schmitt, Greta Van Susteren, Greg Kelly, Carl Higbie, Rob Finnerty – and many more!
Find the NEWSMAX channel on your cable system – Go Here Now
BEST OFFER:
Sign up for NEWSMAX+ and get NEWSMAX, our streaming channel NEWSMAX2 and our military channel World at War.
Find hundreds of shows, movies and specials.
Even get Jon Voight's special series and President Trump's comedy programs and much more!
Watch NEWSMAX+ on your smartphone or home TV app.
Watch NEWSMAX anytime, anywhere!
Start your FREE trial now: NewsmaxPlus.com
© 2026 Newsmax. All rights reserved.