President Donald Trump's low approval rating is not likely to improve much before the 2018 midterms – meaning "there's good reason for GOP panic," according to a former Democratic pollster.
In commentary posted by The Hill on Thursday, Mark Mellman, who also served as president of the American Association of Political Consultants, argues, "historically, the trend between this point and the midterm is downward, not upward."
"On average, presidential approval ratings have dropped over 12 points between this time in the first term and the midterm elections," he wrote.
Trump's approval rating currently is below 40 percent in the RealClearPolitics average; Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight figures it at 37 percent, Mellman wrote.
"There's good reason for GOP panic," he wrote.
According to Mellman, former Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Lyndon Johnson were in the mid-40s when Democrats lost 53, 63, and 47 House seats, respectively, in midterm elections.
Mellman wrote that whatever "upward push" Trump could get from possible healthcare legislation or tax reform, "the downward pressure is likely to remain for some time."
"Lots can happen between now and the midterms, but it's not likely that Trump will gain much ground," he wrote, adding even if he picked up points, "Trump's approval rating will still be in a range where presidents past have lost 11 to 63 [House] seats."
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