Tags: chris cillizza | 2018 | election | democrats

Chris Cillizza: 2018 Might Not Be a Great Election for Dems

Image: Chris Cillizza: 2018 Might Not Be a Great Election for Dems
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By    |   Tuesday, 08 Aug 2017 09:14 AM

Democrats are optimistic about their chances in the midterm elections, but Republicans still have a clear advantage, according to CNN top editor-at-large Chris Cillizza.

"Midterm elections are historically terrible for the president's party," Cillizza wrote on Tuesday. "In 18 of the last 20 midterm elections, the president's party has lost seats. In those 18 elections, the average seat loss is 33. Those numbers are even more daunting for presidents under 50 percent job approval — as [President] Donald Trump is right now. Since 1946, the average seat loss in the House in that situation is 36 seats."

He then refers to FiveThirtyEight's David Wasserman, who wrote on Monday that "Even if Democrats were to win every single 2018 House and Senate race for seats representing places that Hillary Clinton won or that Trump won by less than 3 percentage points — a pretty good midterm by historical standards — they could still fall short of the House majority and lose five Senate seats."

Clinton won 23 districts now held by Republicans, but only eight of those 23 were won by former President Barack Obama in 2012, and even winning each of these seats without losing one Democrat from a district Trump won would still leave the progressive party short of a majority. Cillizza notes that 25 Democratic seats are at risk in 2018, or 52 percent of the party's seats, while Republicans must only defend eight, or 15 percent of their total.

"In short: The political environment is looking very, very good for Democrats. But the math is unchanging — and bad — for them," he writes.

"History suggests that political environments can sometimes overwhelm raw numbers. But, for that to happen you need a gale-force wind blowing in one direction. And that is a very rare thing."

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Democrats are optimistic about their chances in the midterm elections, but Republicans still have a clear advantage, according to CNN top editor-at-large Chris Cillizza.
chris cillizza, 2018, election, democrats
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2017-14-08
Tuesday, 08 Aug 2017 09:14 AM
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