U.S. President Donald Trump will deliver the first State of the Union address of this term next week. It's been two years since Joe Biden delivered the last report card on the nation's economic health, progress on social issues, and standing in the world.
The American people weren't convinced and chose a sharp course correction.
Now, President Trump won't be graded on Biden's policy failures, but his progress on promises made to the American people.
Looking at our economy, there's a good story to tell.
Trump deserves to take a victory lap over the recession that never materialized in 2025.
Following his election and through the Liberation Day tariffs last year, economists and financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predicted economic decline.
The wave of negative forecasts triggered fear in the business community and panic among consumers.
The U.S. economy still stands as the global leader thanks to our thriving economy.
The economy rebounded from the half-point reduction in the first quarter 2025 to deliver real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increases of 3.8% and 4.4% annualized for the two subsequent quarters.
Globally, U.S. economic growth eclipsed our G7 peers last year.
Not only is the U.S. economy the envy of the world, but American households are also in enviable positions.
Some 35% of wealth globally sits in the hands of Americans, and the U.S. is home to 40% of the total number of millionaires.
Rising asset values are quietly pushing middle-class Americans into the ranks of the wealthy. The bullish stock market, hitting historic milestones, has delivered million-dollar nest eggs for aging Baby Boomers and savvy younger investors.
Still, even "everyday millionaires" along with the working class, don't feel better off. Despite the data, perception is hard to change.
Americans were inflation-fatigued when they wisely showed Biden and Kamala Harris the door, but price concerns have not abated even as inflation has calmed.
Positively, wages are outpacing inflation even faster than a year ago, which is boosting purchasing power for all Americans.
Real wage growth is critical for low-income Americans who spend a disproportionate share of their income on everyday needs.
Average real weekly earnings are up 2.2% from this time last year, doubling the 1.1% increase from January 2024 to January 2025.
Take-home pay is also rising thanks to the One Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBBA).
Tax refunds averaging 11% more this tax filing season is one of many benefits of the bill for working Americans.
I've written before about the host of tax changes — from the cancellation of taxes on tipped income to enhanced standard deductions — that allow Americans to keep more of their incomes to save for a down payment, invest in the markets, or afford a family trip.
Meanwhile, inflation is moderating.
The consumer price index rose 2.4% last month (YOY), which is below the 3% rate when President Trump took office.
We must go back to February of 2021 to find a post-pandemic inflation reading this low.
To break the perception versus reality conundrum, President Trump can point to tangible signals that inflation is moving in the right direction.
Begin with the gas pump.
Easing gas prices at the gas pump are the product of his energy dominance agenda.
The national average for a gallon of regular is $2.92, well below last year’s national average of $3.14 currently.
Five states: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, and Mississippi — have averages below $2.50, down 50 cents from one year ago. The average household can expect to spend over $600 less at the gas pump than they did in 2025.
At the grocery store, retailers are cutting back on inflation price hikes to compete for consumers.
PepsiCo announced it was cutting prices by up to 15% without reducing product sizes due to consumer feedback.
In a direct strike against the frustrating shrinkflation, Lay's Potato Chips, Cheetos, Doritos, and Tostitos bags are now printed with "Same Size | New Low Price."
Progress on housing unaffordability is the most encouraging area to highlight.
Housing costs have an outsized impact on inflation, household budgets, and Americans’ long-term wealth.
There's good news of late. National rents are at a four-year low, declining for six consecutive months as new construction of apartments and increased vacancies, possibly due to mass deportations, bring prices down.
After nearly five years, homebuying pressures are easing as housing costs cool.
The income a family now needs to afford a typical home for sale has fallen by 4% from one year ago, according to a new Redfin analysis.
The typical downpayment is down 1.5% from a year prior as homebuyers flex their purchasing power.
Thanks to falling mortgage interest rates, the median monthly mortgage payment is about $2,675, down from roughly $2,800 a year ago.
The job is far from done.
Shocking utility price hikes and out-of-pocket healthcare costs are ongoing challenges.
In the jobs market, data revisions show that only 181,000 jobs were created in 2025, and that's mostly due to the decline in government jobs.
In the State of the Union, I anticipate Trump will lay out ways to work with Congress over the next year to enact bipartisan tax and deregulatory policies that will keep the momentum going to lower prices.
Charting the path forward is critical, but we should also take a moment to cheer the progress made so far.
Patrice Onwuka is director of the Center for Economic Opportunity at Independent Women and co-host of WMAL-DC’s O’Connor & Co. Read Patrice Onwuka Insider articles — Click Here Now.
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