Polling analyst Patrick Allocco pushed back Monday on media narratives suggesting President Donald Trump is losing support among his 2024 voters, arguing instead on Newsmax that the political landscape looks remarkably similar to Election Day.
"Americans didn't just wake up overnight and change their mind about Donald Trump," Allocco told "Finnerty."
"Poll after poll is showing us that between 88% and 96% of Republicans who voted for him in 2024 are still supportive of him today," Allocco said.
Allocco, founder of the Zoose Political Index, said those numbers align with Trump's coalition last year and undercut claims that voters have taken a "U-turn" on the president.
He noted in his most recent report that Trump continues to draw support beyond the Republican base, including "30% of independents" and "4% of Democrats," figures that mirror the margins seen in 2024.
"Fifty-nine percent of blue-collar workers are still with him," Allocco told "Finnerty." "That's huge going into the midterms."
Allocco argued that much of the current political unrest is not coming from former Trump supporters but from voters who opposed him all along.
"If you were against his economic policies, if you're against his foreign policies, if you're against his immigration policies, chances are you didn't vote for President Trump in 2024," Allocco said.
"What we're seeing right now is … this uprising of anger that's bubbling up to the surface," he said.
Allocco pointed to protests against Immigration and Customs Enforcement in Minneapolis and demonstrations in New York tied to Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro as examples of that energy resurfacing rather than shifting voter sentiment.
Turning to the 2026 midterms, Allocco contrasted current polling with the environment ahead of the 2018 elections.
That year, Democrats held a nine-point lead on the generic congressional ballot and flipped 41 House seats.
Today, he said, the picture is far narrower.
"We're at a D-plus-3 right now on the generic ballot," Allocco said, calling it "just a lean toward Democrats. It's not a wave of any sort."
He added that extreme partisanship is limiting the scale of potential seat swings.
"No forecaster right now is looking at a 26-seat flip of the House," Allocco said, noting that any change would likely leave margins tight.
Allocco also said the Trump administration is struggling to connect with female voters ages 21-44, despite improving economic conditions.
"They've got this positive macroeconomic message that they're unable … to connect with this voter," he said.
He described that voter as "affordability focused, authenticity driven," and said the White House needs to meet her "at the intersection of lifestyle, culture and, as an afterthought, politics."
"How can they correct that?" Allocco said.
"They can meet her at that point by building what I would say is an influencer army… to deliver their message to her there," he said.
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