NY Times/Siena College Poll: Harris, Trump Tied in Sun Belt States

Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in Arizona and holds an edge over him in North Carolina, while he has the lead over her in Georgia and Nevada, putting the two in a tie in the four Sun Belt states, according to a new poll.

The New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted of 2,670 registered voters on Aug. 8-15 and released Saturday, shows Harris leading Trump by 50% to 45% in Arizona and by 49% to 47% in North Carolina. Meanwhile, Trump is holding Georgia by 50% to 46%, and Nevada by 48% to 47% for Harris, the polls of likely voters show, putting the two candidates at a tie of 48% each across the four Sun Belt states.

The latest poll marks a sharp improvement since the last Times/Siena poll for Democrats in May, when Trump led President Joe Biden by 50% to 41% across Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. That poll did not include North Carolina.

The poll comes after last week's Times/Siena poll last week's Times/Siena poll in the northern battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that showed Harris ahead of Trump by 4 percentage points.

The polls did show some risks for Harris, with 43% of registered voters saying they consider her to be too liberal, compared to 33% saying Trump is too conservative.

The poll further showed that Democrats are newly excited over the race with Harris as their nominee, with 85% of the voters saying they are at least somewhat enthusiastic about voting. This number nearly matched the voters' enthusiasm for Trump.

Further, large majorities from both sides are satisfied with their candidates, while in May, Republicans were overwhelmingly more satisfied.

The current poll shows that this year's election is highly polarized. Harris pulled the support of 84% of Black voters in the poll, more than Biden had been carrying before he left the race in July.

She also had the backing of 54% of the Latino voters polled, and opened up a gender gap with Trump in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, taking a lead of 14 percentage points among women.

Harris also widened the gap among nonwhite voters in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada by 29 percentage points, as compared to the 17 percentage points Biden had carried among those voters in May.

Trump, meanwhile, took the lead among white voters without a college degree, leading with 66% support across the four Sun Belt states.

Harris and Trump both earned a 48% favorable rating. However, the number is a large leap for Harris, after a national survey in February showed her with an unfavorable margin of 19 percentage points.

The poll did reveal some vulnerable spots for Harris, with more voters saying she flip-flops on issues that matter than does Trump.

Trump also continued to hold the advantage on the economy and immigration, which most voters said are among the most vital issues facing the United States.

Trump and Harris were nearly tied, though, on the question of which candidate would best handle issues voters deemed most important to them.

Meanwhile, the polls for the four Sun Belt States were virtually unchanged when third-party candidates were added into the mix, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. taking 4% of likely voters, about half of what he netted in the May poll.

The margins of error for the polls in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia were plus or minus 4.4 points. In North Carolina, the margin of error was plus or minus 4.2 points.