The 2026 Senate map looks a lot rosier for Democrats, according to one election handicapper.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election newsletter, shifted four Senate races toward Democrats on Monday.
North Carolina's Senate race between former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, and former RNC Chair Michael Whatley moved from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democrat."
The two are running to replace retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.
Georgia incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff saw his race move from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democrat." Ossoff, whose Republican opponent will be determined following a crowded primary, is running for a second term.
Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, saw his race against former Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown move from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up."
Husted was appointed to the upper chamber following JD Vance's ascension to vice president, while Brown was defeated for reelection in 2024.
Nebraska GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts saw his race against independent Dan Osborn move from "Solid Republican" to "Lean Republican."
Despite the positive outlook for Democrats, the Cook Political Report still believes Republicans will control the Senate following the midterm elections.
"With an increasingly sour national environment for Republicans, the Senate battlefield is shifting in Democrats' favor," wrote Jessica Taylor, the Senate editor for the website.
"But due to the difficulty of the map, winning back a majority still remains a tall order," Taylor added. "The GOP remain the narrowing favorites to retain the upper chamber. However, that outlook could change in the coming months."
Taylor believes Democrats can flip one to three seats due to President Donald Trump's lagging approval ratings.
Democrats need four seats to control the Senate.
"At the core of the GOP's problems is President Donald Trump and his dipping approval ratings," Taylor wrote.
"Nothing he has done lately has boosted his party's prospects, including an unpopular military action in Iran that sent gas prices skyrocketing, even as he has dismissed voters' concerns about affordability," Taylor added.
"Trump has even seen his advantage on immigration erode amid disapproval of ICE's controversial enforcement tactics," Taylor continued.
As Democrats face difficult intraparty primaries in Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa, Taylor said seats could start flipping toward Republicans.
"We concede that these ratings changes are coming as Trump is at a new polling low and still navigating a yet-to-be-resolved war in Iran," Taylor said.
"So, it's possible things could rebound for his party or that they could find a rallying cry to get his base out in November," Taylor added. "A summer Supreme Court retirement certainly wouldn't hurt."
Sam Barron ✉
Sam Barron has almost two decades of experience covering a wide range of topics including politics, crime and business.
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