In the past week, polling data has increasingly shown Republicans within striking distance of Democrats in races previously thought to be "safe" Democrat: the races for governor of Michigan and New York, the Senate races in Colorado and Pennsylvania, and several others.
But a careful examination of most of the major polls found that, in the past three election cycles, their results have favored the Democrats by four to five percentage points only to have the outcome either be much closer or a statistical tie.
"What we have is polling in aggregated battleground states that has continued in cycle after cycle that is inaccurate," political analyst Spencer Abraham Jr. told Newsmax over the weekend. "And if it is inaccurate, someone needs to prove it."
Abraham is a onetime aide to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and namesake son of a former Michigan senator and U.S. secretary of energy. He and veteran pollster Colin Pitts recently launched a new website to study major polls and their results in 2016, 2018 and 2020.
Based on their findings as detailed at The Polling Monitor, Abraham and Pitts concluded that major contests still deemed "leaning Democratic" by the polls are probably, in fact, leading the other way.
The oft-cited Quinnipiac Poll, for example, released a much-discussed poll on Oct. 12 on the closely watched Georgia Senate race. It showed Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock leading Republican challenger Herschel Walker by 52% to 45% among likely voters.
"But looking at the record of Quinnipiac in the three election cycles since 2016, it overweighs Democrats by 2.6 percent," Abraham told us. "So this race is probably a statistical tie now."
He also cited the Oct. 3 USA Today/Suffolk poll in Pennsylvania showing Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman leading Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz by 46% to 40% statewide.
Abraham said, "USA Today/Suffolk has historically skewered its polling 5.8% in for the Democrats. So it's a good bet to say the Senate race was a dead split on Oct. 1."
He went on to cite The Polling Monitor's findings from the past three cycles in Arizona showing CBS/YouGov overweighing Democratic strength by 4.2%.
"So when you look at their latest poll of the Senate race showing [Democratic Sen.] Mark Kelly beating [Republican opponent] Blake Masters by 51[%] to 48%," said Abraham, "it actually means Masters is ahead."
CBS/YouGov also found on Oct. 6 that in Michigan, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer led Republican challenger Tudor Dixon by 53% to 47%.
"But the record since 2016 shows they are outweighing the Democrats by 2.6%, so it's probably a tie," Abraham told us, adding that CBS/YouGov's findings were released before the recent televised confrontation between the two in which Dixon was widely judged to have gained major ground.
"If polls are misleading voters or someone has put their thumb on the scale, they need to be called out," Abraham said. "That's why we have PollingMonitor.com."
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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