President Donald Trump's imposition of a blockade of Iranian ports has put the Iranian regime in an impossible position. Dependent upon energy exports for 60% of the state budget - including payroll for their conventional army and the loyalist IRGC (Iranian Republican Guard Corps) the Iranian economy's freefall will accelerate.
And the regime knows it.
Fresh from the talks in Islamabad they are already trying to make nice through numerous media outlets.
Tehran has no good military or diplomatic options.
Any attack on U.S. naval assets will be met by swift and thorough strikes by U.S. forces and possibly a resumption of attacks on Iranian leadership including those who just met with U.S. Vice JD President Vance.
Such attacks would be nearly instantaneous and violent.
Iranians unfortunate enough to be saddled with this task may balk at carrying out such an order. Doing nothing on the other hand means the steady strangulation of the regime.
Alternatively, attacking Gulf states may result in these countries actively participating in military action against Tehran.
Will the Iranian Regime Try to Save Itself by Capitulating To President Trump's Requirements?
Iran has invested the treasure of two generations in its missile, nuclear and terrorist operations to the detriment of its own people.
It was the economic plight of the Iranian people that gave rise to the protests that cost over 30,000 Iranians their lives.
By capitulating and negotiating for sanctions relief Tehran would begin addressing this powerful grievance in Iranian society.
However, this would mean abandoning the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah.
In the eyes of the hardliners this would be abandonment of the Islamist project if not outright religious apostasy.
It would also be seen as a titanic show of weakness by the regime - one that the current leadership may see as too risky even in the unlikely event hardline elements of the IRGC and security services could be brought on board.
The Dog In Iran That Hasn’t Barked but May Well Bite
The pooch in the kennel that hasn't barked yet is the Artesh (The conventional Iranian military). Since the war began US planners have minimized strikes on Artesh units as they may be the key to a post theocracy Iran.
Having twice the manpower and being a rival of sorts to the IRGC the Artesh is manned by ordinary Iranians not selected for loyalty to the regime.
Artesh officers may look at their men and realize that this part of Iranian society is armed and that it may be better to show some gumption and leadership rather than face the guns of their men.
The 350,000 Iranians with guns that are not being paid and are not beneficiaries of regime kleptocracy may be Tehran’s Achilles heel.
The Iranian Internet
The smartest thing the Iranian leadership has done (from their point of view) was to shut down the internet within Iran.
The internet was key to the organizing of the massive protests this past winter. Iranian security services realized that by severing communications individuals and small groups would be isolated and unable to coordinate their activities.
Tyrannical regimes have always known that when opponents feel small and alone, they are unable to generate the critical mass necessary for successful rebellion.
However, Tehran will not be able to keep the internet in Iran dark forever.
The Iranian economy is experiencing continuing and growing damage by this enforced internet outage. Iran is not North Korea where a complete digital sequestration is possible.
Too many Iranians are digitally sophisticated and commercially dependent on connectivity.
It may also be that the U.S. and Israel are holding in their back pocket a way of at least partially reopening it. But open it will and the the Iranian people will have their say.
The next few weeks and months will decide the future of Iran and the Mideast and the chances are that these will be in Winston Churchill’s words: "The Hinges of Fate."
John Jordan, former Navy intelligence officer, pilot, attorney, international economist, overseer at Stanford's Hoover Institution and conservative political consultant. He is a regular contributor for Newsmax. Read more John Jordan Insider articles — Click Here Now.
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