From the beginning, I was skeptical that tariffs — especially blunt, across-the-board tariffs— would deliver the strategic leverage their strongest advocates promised.
That skepticism has only grown as we watch events unfold on our northern border.
What was once a stable, mutually beneficial economic relationship between the United States and Canada has grown increasingly strained. And now, in a twist few would have predicted even a year ago, Canada is deepening its trade ties with China.
This is not a theoretical concern.
It's happening in real time.
As Washington pressures Ottawa with escalating economic threats, including talk of a 100 percent tariff on Canadian goods, Canada is responding rationally — even if uncomfortably—from its own national interest. When access to your largest trading partner becomes uncertain, you diversify.
That's not ideology; it is survival.
Every war — military or economic — has fog. And in that fog, decisions that feel tough and decisive can produce consequences that are anything but.
Trade wars are no different.
Tariffs may feel like leverage, but they also function as signals. When those signals tell allies they are expendable, they will look elsewhere.
Canada is not just any trading partner.
It's America's largest export market, our closest ally, and part of an integrated North American supply chain that took decades to build.
Energy, agriculture, automotive manufacturing, minerals, and defense production are deeply intertwined across the U.S.-Canada border.
You cannot pull one thread without affecting the whole fabric.
Yet that is precisely what aggressive tariff threats risk doing.
By escalating pressure on Canada over its economic engagement with China, we may be accelerating the very outcome we are trying to prevent.
Canada's recent trade overtures toward Beijing are not an endorsement of China's political system or global ambitions.
They are a hedge — a response to uncertainty coming from Washington. If access to the U.S. market can be curtailed overnight by executive action, Canadian leaders will seek stability elsewhere.
That should alarm anyone serious about countering China's influence.
China does not need to defeat the United States outright.
It only needs to weaken our alliances. When allies feel pushed, lectured, or punished, Beijing is waiting with contracts, capital, and patience. It understands something we sometimes forget.
Economic influence precedes political influence.
Threatening Canada with a 100% tariff is not strength; it is escalation without strategy. Such a move would not punish China.
It would raise prices for American consumers, disrupt U.S. manufacturers, and strain
industries that rely on cross-border trade.
More importantly, it would push Canada to formalize economic relationships that reduce its reliance on the United States altogether.
Once supply chains shift, they do not easily shift back.
Supporters of tariffs often argue that short-term pain is worth long-term gain.
That can be true — but only if the long-term outcome is clearly defined and realistically achievable. What's the endgame here? Is it to force Canada to sever all economic ties with China? That's not realistic.
China is the world's second-largest economy. Every major U.S. ally trades with it to some degree, including European nations and Japan.
The smarter question is not whether allies trade with China, but whether they trade with China at our expense—or in coordination with us.
Driving wedges between the United States and its closest allies makes coordination impossible.
Economic statecraft requires precision. Tariffs can be a tool, but when they become the default response, they lose effectiveness.
Worse, they begin to resemble coercion rather than leadership. Allies do not respond well to coercion, especially when they feel they are being treated no differently than adversaries.
There is also a domestic cost. American farmers, manufacturers, and small businesses pay the price when trade tensions escalate.
Retaliatory measures are inevitable. Markets become volatile. Investment slows. Uncertainty grows. These are not abstract effects; they show up in balance sheets and paychecks.
None of this is an argument for weakness. China is a strategic competitor, and its economic practices deserve firm, coordinated pushback.
But coordination is the key word. Isolating China requires pulling allies closer, not pushing them away.
If Canada drifts further into China’s economic orbit, that is not a failure of Canadian values—it is a failure of American strategy.
The lesson here is not that tariffs never work.
It is that tariffs without a clear diplomatic framework, without allied buy-in, and without an exit strategy are more likely to backfire than succeed. Toughness alone is not a plan.
In the fog of economic war, it's easy to confuse pressure with progress.
But unintended consequences have a way of becoming permanent realities.
If we continue down a path that treats allies as collateral damage, we should not be surprised when they start acting like free agents.
America wins when it leads coalitions, not when it stands alone. And if we are serious about countering China, we should start by making sure our closest neighbor is standing with us — not being pushed away.
Jim Renacci is a former U.S. Congressman, businessman, and conservative leader dedicated to putting America first. Read more Fmr. Rep. Jim Renacci Insider articles — Click Here Now.
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