Polling expert Patrick Allocco told Newsmax on Monday that the California governor's race has been reshaped by the sexual assault allegations that forced Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., to exit.
Swalwell, who was the leading Democrat in the polls, dropped out of the race Sunday after multiple women accused him of sexual assault. On Monday, he announced he was resigning from Congress.
"It blows the race wide open," Allocco said on "Finnerty."
California has a jungle primary system. The top two vote getters, regardless of party, advance to a general election.
"Swalwell's exit doesn't just hurt one Democrat. It increases the odds that the Democrats keep splitting their vote while Republicans stay consolidated," Allocco said.
"That's the danger for the Dems. If they don't unify quickly around a replacement front-runner, you can absolutely get a top-two scenario with Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco," he added.
"This race just became a huge math problem."
Allocco acknowledged Republicans face an uphill battle to retake the governor's mansion.
"It will be difficult to win, but it is very possible," he said, noting that 60% of registered voters in California are Democrats.
The pollster also dismissed rumblings that former Vice President Kamala Harris could run as an independent. Harris ruled out running for governor earlier this year.
"In a jungle primary, that would be political malpractice. Democrats are already worried that there's too many Democrats splitting the vote among them, and that Hilton, Bianco would get through," Allocco said.
"Harris would make that outcome more likely."
Allocco said he wasn't surprised by polling that showed Harris as the current Democrat front-runner for president in 2028.
"Harris has national name ID, so in the early polling that shows strength. But that's recognition, not voter consolidation. And that's the tell," he said.
"If Democrats were settled, you wouldn't be seeing this conversation about a [Texas State Rep. James] Talarico clone. They're searching and heading for a messy primary to sort it all out."
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Sam Barron ✉
Sam Barron has almost two decades of experience covering a wide range of topics including politics, crime and business.
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