For the first time in American history, the population in rural areas declined over the past decade, a new study found.
The study by Kenneth Johnson, a senior demographer at the Carsey School of Public Policy, and professor of sociology at the University of New Hampshire, found that the population of rural America dropped by 289,000, or 0.06% between 2010 and 2020, the first such decline recorded in U.S. history.
"The actual size of the loss isn't a particularly big deal," Johnson told The Hill. "The fact that it actually happened, that rural America, as a whole lost population, reflects a significant change. The question is, Is it just a short-term thing, or is it a longer-term thing?"
The drop is the first decrease recorded in that demographic compared to prior decades that saw increases of 1.5 million from 2000-2010, and 3.4 million during the 1990s, according to the study.
Population increases depend on the "balance" between natural factors of births and deaths and migration patterns in and out of areas, the study said.
The Great Recession of 2008 caused economic turbulence, including unemployment, housing debt, and poor economic prospects "froze" many people in place, not allowing for traditional migration from urban to rural areas, according to the study.
In addition, deaths of the mostly older rural populations outpaced births as fertility rates hit record lows with the fewest births since 1979.
According to the study, rural areas, which cover 70% of the land area in the country, experienced a net migration loss of 510,000 during the period and was not fully replaced by birth increases of 221,000, leaving the 289,000-population shortfall.
Some rural areas experienced population growth in places attractive to retirees, like parts of the west and southeast and recreational areas in the upper Great Lakes, Ozarks, Great Smokies, and New England, according to the study.
Despite those gains, the study found two-thirds of all non-metropolitan counties losing population, especially in rural areas without a large town nearby.
The data has a big caveat, however.
The study analyzed data from April 1, 2000, to April 1, 2020, right around the time the COVID-19 pandemic hit the nation hard.
Since March 2020, many of America’s largest cities saw a sharp decrease in population, with many people leaving urban centers at the height of the pandemic, a Brookings article on the topic said in June 2021.
"The growth downturn was especially sharp for the '1-million-plus' group," the article said. "This is consistent with broader trends associated with the mid-decade rise in the economy, which accelerated movement out of large metropolitan areas and into smaller places, as well as increased movement to the suburbs among ‘stuck in place’ millennials and other city residents."
According to the article, out of the 10 largest cities in the nation, five, including New York city, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Chicago, and San Jose, California, lost net population during the pandemic, while eight showed lower growth compared to 2018-19, with six of those experiencing the lowest growth in a decade.
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