Republicans could see a major shift in congressional seats to Texas and Florida, while Democrats could be facing painful losses in California and New York if redistricting projections based on the 2030 Census hold true.
Such population shifts could also translate into meaningful gains in electoral votes, potentially allowing Republican presidential candidates to win national elections without needing to carry traditional battleground states such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
The projections were made by Jonathan Cervas of Carnegie Mellon University and released Tuesday on X by The Redistrict Network. They are based on 2025 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Cervas is a redistricting expert who was appointed by the court to redraw New York's House maps in 2022, according to the New York Post. His analysis reflects projected seat changes if current population trends hold through 2030 and does not represent final census apportionment.
Under the projections, California and New York, which delivered a combined 82 electoral votes to former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, would lose a combined six House seats.
Texas and Florida, which delivered a combined 70 electoral votes for President Donald Trump in 2024, are projected to gain a combined eight seats.
"This is not good news for New York or California," Jeff Wice, a New York Law School lawyer who has aided the New York City Council in redrawing district lines, told the Post.
Wice said blue states could lose even more seats if Trump and Republicans succeed in adding a citizenship question to census forms.
Although the Constitution requires that all residents be counted regardless of legal status, Wice said such a question could discourage illegal aliens or others with uncertain status from responding.
The projections also show reliably blue states Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon and Rhode Island losing a combined four seats. Meanwhile, reliably red states Georgia, Idaho and North Carolina are projected to gain a combined three seats.
Several swing states could also see changes. Arizona and Nevada are each projected to gain one seat, while Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are each projected to lose one.
Trump carried all four states in the 2024 election.
Michael Katz ✉
Michael Katz is a Newsmax reporter with more than 30 years of experience reporting and editing on news, culture, and politics.
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