Corporate leaders see a soft landing for the U.S. economy instead of a recession.
The country's leading chief executives say the overall economy remains solid, though the pace of corporate hiring may slow in the coming months, according to a new survey shared with Axios.
The Business Roundtable's quarterly CEO economic outlook survey found that the top executives say the economy can move forward without the plunging sales and mass layoffs seen in recessions, Axios reported.
The survey found that the overall index of CEO expectations fell to 76, but still comfortably above 50, the line between expansion and contraction. The current mark also is below its long-term average of 84.
Axios reported underlying details from the survey. They included:
- Executives' expectations for sales (unchanged from the first quarter) and capital spending plans (up slightly) are what one would expect in a recession.
- The share of CEOs expecting their U.S. employment to decrease in the next six months remained unchanged (27%) from the first quarter.
- Fewer CEOs — 33% compared to 41% last quarter — envision increasing their headcount.
The survey indicated that top executives envision a period of muddling along with slow growth, rather than outright contraction, Axios said. The corporate leaders expect 1.5% GDP growth this year, slightly up from their expectation three months ago.
The survey results were reported four days after President Joe Biden signed legislation that lifts the nation's debt ceiling, averting an unprecedented default on the federal government's debt.
"Action by Congress and the Administration to raise the debt ceiling was a welcome signal from Washington that bipartisan agreement at a consequential moment is achievable," General Motors CEO and Business Roundtable chair Mary Barra said, Axios reported.
"Business leaders stand ready to work with lawmakers to advance policies that strengthen the economy and American competitiveness."
Goldman Sachs on Tuesday lowered its probability for a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 25% from 35% and said the Federal Reserve will "most likely" hike interest rates by 25 basis points in July.
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