June 28, 2018: Fifty-six percent of U.S. adults say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in the 2018 midterm elections. Other than the 54 percent level recorded in 1978, that’s the lowest level of interest measured by Gallup in more than 60 years of polling the same question.[1]
The all-time high levels of midterm interest came in 2006 and 2010 when 68 percent of adults said they were absolutely certain to vote.
Currently, there is no partisan difference in enthusiasm for this year’s election. Gallup reports that "65 percent of Republicans and 64 percent of Democrats say they are absolutely certain to vote. As is normal, independents are less certain of voting, at 45 percent."
Gallup says that "the 2018 midterm elections may not produce the blue wave that was suggested by earlier polling." The research firm notes that "when asked whether their vote for a congressional candidate will be made to send a positive or a negative message about Trump, about as many registered voters who plan to vote say they will be sending a message to support Trump (20 percent) as to oppose him (23 percent)." In 2006, 2010, and 2014, the party out of power made huge gains. In those years, however, there was a wide gap between the number who wanted to send a message of support and opposition.
Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology. Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
Scott Rasmussen is founder and president of the Rasmussen Media Group. He is the author of "Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System," "In Search of Self-Governance," and "The People’s Money: How Voters Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt." Read more reports from Scott Rasmussen — Click Here Now.
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