August 1, 2018: Thirty-four (34) seats currently held by Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives are at high risk of flipping parties in the midterm elections. That’s up from 28 seats that were rated as high-risk in March.
A race-by-race analysis at ScottRasmussen.com shows that Democrats are favored in nine Republican-held districts, and 13 more are pure toss-ups. Additionally, there are 12 districts rated as barely tilting in the Republican direction.
The 34 high-risk seats are not the only concern for Republicans. There are also 16 Republican seats that are very competitive but lean in the GOP direction. On top of that, there are 23 GOP seats that could be at risk if the political environment becomes more favorable to Democrats this fall.
To win majority control, Democrats need to gain 23 seats in November. Only four Democratic seats are considered high-risk. That includes two toss-ups and two races barely tilting in the Democratic direction. Republicans are not currently favored in any Democratic districts.
A Ballotpedia analysis found that a wave election would mean Democrats gain at least 48 seats in the House. That could happen if the Democrats pick up all the Republican seats that are currently high-risk plus all of the seats currently leaning in the Republican direction.
While political activists are highly focused on the upcoming election, just 56 percent of U.S. adults say they are absolutely certain to vote. That’s near a historic low.
In 2016, 10 percent of all U.S. voters voted for Donald Trump but thought he was unqualified to serve as president. How they vote (or if they vote) in November may play a significant role in determining which party controls Congress.
Another factor to watch will be the generational transition. In 2016, for the first time ever, just over half of all votes were cast by millennials and Gen-Xers.
Ballotpedia has conducted extensive research into 206 Pivot Counties that voted for President Obama in 2008 and 2012 and for President Trump in 2016. Despite casting only 5 percent of the national vote total in 2016, they accounted for 51 percent of the popular vote shift toward Republicans.
In addition to the 206 Pivot Counties, 10 counties voted for the losing presidential candidate in the last three presidential elections. There are also 2,226 solid Republican counties and 449 solid Democratic counties.
Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology. Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
Scott Rasmussen is founder and president of the Rasmussen Media Group. He is the author of "Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System," "In Search of Self-Governance," and "The People’s Money: How Voters Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt." Read more reports from Scott Rasmussen — Click Here Now.
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