6 Democratic Senate Seats at Risk in 2018

August 3, 2018: Six of the 49 U.S. Senate seats currently held by Democrats are potentially at risk in the midterm elections.[1] Five of these six seats are in states that Donald Trump won by double digits. The sixth is in the perennial swing state of Florida.

The overall results reflect an improvement for Democrats. In early April, eight Democratic seats were at risk. Since then, the races in Ohio and Wisconsin have moved more solidly into the Democratic camp.

Overall, the race ratings at ScottRasmussen.com show four races with Democratic senators that are currently considered toss-ups: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota.

West Virginia is still tilting in favor of the Democratic incumbent, Joe Manchin. Montana is leaning in the Democrats’ direction but is expected to be competitive.

Republicans, in contrast, have only three seats currently at risk: Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee.

With a good turnout this fall, projections at ScottRasmussen.com show that Democrats could win control of the Senate with a narrow 52-48 majority. However, a good Republican turnout could boost the party’s majority to a 56-44 advantage.

The Senate playing field is unique. Earlier Numbers of the Day showed that Republicans have far more seats at risk in both the U.S. House elections and the gubernatorial races. In each case, however, the Democrats have improved their position since earlier in the year.

Footnotes:

1. Note: This total includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats: Bernie Sanders and Angus King.

Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology. Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.

Scott Rasmussen is founder and president of the Rasmussen Media Group. He is the author of "Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System," "In Search of Self-Governance," and "The People’s Money: How Voters Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt." Read more reports from Scott Rasmussen — Click Here Now.