"When it comes down it will be in the form of several double-decker-bus-sized chunks hurtling down at several hundred miles an hour," Balogh, a professor at London's Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, said in published comments Wednesday.
He told the Times newspaper that falling debris from the unmanned Mir, which was launched in February 1986, "could do an awful lot of damage" if it hit populated areas.
"It would be like an aircraft crashing – just think of the Lockerbie disaster," Balogh said. "If they permanently lose all contact it is a very dangerous situation."
A Pan Am airliner with a bomb on board exploded and fell on the Scottish village of Locerkbie in 1988, killing all 259 people on board and 11 on the ground.
"This would be the most dangerous space disaster we have ever faced because this is the largest space object ever to be in orbit," Balogh said.
"We can only hope that when it does hit the Earth it is in somewhere like Siberia or a remote ocean," he said. "Unfortunately one cannot exclude the possibility that it could fall on a major city – although they only occupy a tiny area of the globe's surface."
Russian mission control lost contact with the Mir for an unprecedented 20 hours before re-establishing communication on Tuesday.
The incident sparked concern that the accident-prone craft might spin out of control before its scheduled final journey back to Earth in late February.
Russian officials said Wednesday they could not yet confirm that all communication had been restored with the station, which has never been out of contact for so long before.
"There is no risk that the station will fall to Earth," spokeswoman Vera Medvedkova said. "It is orbiting 315 kilometers above the Earth, and can remain there until March 15, 2001."
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