In recent years, voters are increasingly voting along party lines, a challenge for Republicans given there are more registered Democrats throughout the country, the
National Journal reported.
An analysis by the Pew Research Center of a large number of national polls found that from 1990 through 2006, an average of 29 percent of adults identified themselves as Republicans while 33 percent said they are Democrats.
In the last seven years, Republican supporters dropped by five points to 24 percent, while Democrats remained consistent.
The change can be accounted for by the growth in independents, the Journal said, who averaged 32 percent in the early period and grew to 36 percent in the last seven years.
Independents, like those who identify explicitly with one party, do have a tendency to lean toward one party and vote consistently, and the research found that when combined with party-identifiers, Democrats have 48 or 49 percent compared to Republicans at 39 or 40 percent.
"Two interpretations would seem in order. Focusing exclusively on the initial party identification offered by survey respondents, Republicans are in decline, with Democrats holding relatively steady and independents growing fast. That would not be good news for the GOP," the Journal said.
"Or, if you focus more on the leaned party identification, the situation is very steady, but it still does not bode well for Republicans in 2016."
Leaned party identification is a reliable indicator of how people will vote, the Journal said, particularly in presidential years.
"Entering the 2016 presidential cycle, the phenomenon presents a real challenge to Republicans who are lagging behind in party affiliation — a fact of no small importance, given that roughly 90 percent of voters cast their ballots for the party that they personally identify with," the Journal said.
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