Two-term Rep. David Brat, R-Va., is having the fight of his career in Virginia's 7th District —odd, considering the Richmond-based district has been firmly in Republican hands for 38 years.
According to a just-completed New York Times/Siena College poll, Brat, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, now ekes out a lead of 46-44 percent over Democrat Abigail Spanberger.
Times/Siena also showed 9 percent were undecided. Untested in the poll was Libertarian Party candidate Joe Walton, who almost surely would take votes from the Libertarian-leaning Brat rather than liberal Spanbeger.
"I think Brat squeaks it out with strong turnout in the Republican rural areas west of Richmond," John Ambrose, retired professor at the J. Sargent Reynolds Community College and lifelong Richmond resident.
He added his belief "Walton will not have any effect. Brat either wins on his own or is defeated by a margin greater than the votes that Walton receives. If the contest were a typical 'lesser of two evils' contest, then Walton might have an effect, but I don't think that's how Brat and Spanberger are perceived."
Ambrose pointed out "Spanberger has flooded the zone with lots of money and advertisements, but I think much of it is being wasted. [Wife] Barbara and I live in the city and see loads of yard signs for Spanberger, and nary a one for Brat, but all those signs are in the neighboring 4th District, which is represented by [Democrat] Donald McEachin."
Spanberger did make news by picking up the endorsement of former Sen. John Warner, R-Va. Asked what impact Warner's blessing will have, Ambrose told us: "It's hard to say. I suspect most have long forgotten him."
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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