Democrat Terry McAuliffe is leading Republican Glenn Youngkin in the race for Virginia governor by just 5 percentage points, according to the latest survey from Monmouth University Poll released on Monday.
McAuliffe, the former Virginia governor from 2014 to 2018, leads Youngkin, 48 percent to 43 percent with less than two months until the election. These results are virtually unchanged from August, when McAuliffe had 47 percent support and the Republican 42 percent.
Much of the former governor’s support comes from the Northern Virginia area and the eastern region known as Tidewater, whereas the bulk of Youngkin’s support originates in western Virginia.
"The central spine around Richmond appears to be the area with the greatest potential for actually swaying voters,” said Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray. “Throughout most of Virginia, though, it’s more a matter of turning out the respective party’s bases."
Murray also noted that McAullife holds an advantage among voters who turned out in the 2017 gubernatorial election, while Youngkin does better among voters who described themselves as more enthusiastic about voting in this year’s race than in previous elections.
“Youngkin seems to do better if the turnout is unusually high, while McAuliffe does better if turnout is just slightly above average for a gubernatorial race,” Murray said. “Youngkin has an enthusiasm advantage, but the problem with enthusiasm is that it’s not always a good barometer for turnout, particularly when early voting and mail balloting options make it easier for less engaged voters to turn out.”
Monmouth surveyed 801 registered voters in Virginia from September 22 to 26, 2021 with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
Theodore Bunker ✉
Theodore Bunker, a Newsmax writer, has more than a decade covering news, media, and politics.
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