Tony Shaffer to Newsmax: Strait of Hormuz Risk 'Perception,' Not Reality

Perception, not reality, is the problem with the Strait of Hormuz, where only "one out of a thousand" ships will be hit by enemy fire, retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer told Newsmax on Monday.

Appearing on "Wake Up America," Shaffer and retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt discussed President Donald Trump's push for allied nations to help defend the vital shipping lane as tensions continue in the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy choke points, with roughly 20% of global oil supplies passing through the narrow waterway each day.

Despite threats from Iran and sporadic attacks using drones and small boats, Shaffer said the actual danger to shipping is relatively small.

"Ships are still going through," Shaffer told co-hosts Marc Lotter and Christina Thompson. "Only one out of a thousand will be hit, but that one in a thousand is what freaks everybody out."

Shaffer argued the problem is largely psychological and tied to intimidation tactics by Iran and uncertainty in global markets rather than an actual shutdown of maritime traffic.

Trump has urged NATO allies and other partners to contribute naval forces to help escort commercial vessels through the strait, emphasizing that many of the countries benefiting most from the oil shipments — including European nations, Japan, and China — rely heavily on the route.

Holt said Trump is justified in pressing allies to share the burden.

"You've got Europe that wants to stand up every day and twice on Sunday to say, 'We'll never touch Russian gas again,'" Holt said. "Then they won't help secure the very shipping lanes their energy depends on."

Holt suggested some European reluctance to participate may also stem from commercial interests tied to maritime insurance markets centered in London.

"He [Trump] wants them to burden-share. Get your butts down here, and open up these channels," Holt said. "I don't want to hear from Lloyd's of London again to try to shut down the straits. You're not helping the European people out, and you're not being a good ally.

"It's a perfectly reasonable request to say if you've got a naval force up in Europe and it's not doing anything, maybe you should come down here and grab a shovel."

Shaffer agreed, arguing that the conflict over protecting shipping routes also has a major economic component beyond the battlefield.

"President Trump is trying to change the very fabric of how commerce is done globally," Shaffer said, noting that some European financial interests could lose influence if new shipping security arrangements reduce their control over insurance markets.

Holt also warned that global food supply chains could be impacted by disruptions tied to energy production and refining, including policies in states such as California that have reduced refining capacity.

"The famine is what we should be talking about, not oil prices," Holt said, arguing the conflict is fundamentally a logistics battle affecting energy, agriculture, and shipping.

Shaffer said militarily the conflict could wind down soon, echoing recent comments from Energy Secretary Chris Wright predicting that tensions may ease in the coming weeks.

But he warned that Iran's use of asymmetric tactics, including drones and unmanned boats, means threats could continue even after major operations subside.

Still, Shaffer emphasized the overall message: The shipping lanes remain open.

"This isn't a supply issue," he said. "There's plenty of oil. The issue is perception."

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