Democrats are unsure how much money they should spend in Texas even as hopes rise that state Sen. James Talarico, their nominee for a U.S. Senate seat, could finally turn the state blue.
Democrats are concerned that the high cost of trying to flip the Lone Star State won't be worth it if Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, emerges as the GOP nominee.
Cornyn did better than expected in Tuesday's primary against Attorney General Ken Paxton and could receive President Donald Trump's endorsement ahead of the May 26 primary runoff, thus making his path to victory easier.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Democrats also have other states to target, including Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio, along with defending seats in Georgia and Michigan.
A seat also opened in Montana when GOP Sen. Steve Daines announced he will not seek reelection.
"We have to be practical about how we use our resources," Alex Hoffman, a donor adviser to Democrats, told Politico.
"You need a perfect storm to kill a white whale, and if it's going to be Cornyn [running against Talarico in the general election], then it's not a perfect storm," he added.
While Texas has long been seen as a pipe dream for Democrats, many say President Donald Trump's low approval rating could lead to a blue wave in the midterm elections.
"If I'm being super honest, Texas would not be within the reach of our boat here, as fishermen of the white whale, but for the wave moment we're in," said Tory Gavito, who leads the progressive donor network Way to Win.
Republicans have already spent $70 million on Cornyn's primary run against Paxton, and some believe a runoff could cost $100 million.
Talarico, who clinched the nomination over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, is known as a prolific fundraiser.
An issue plaguing Democrats is the financial might Republicans have.
Senate Republicans entered 2026 with twice as much cash as Senate Democrats, while the Republican National Committee has a cash advantage of more than $100 million over the Democratic National Committee, Politico reported.
"If the goal is to win the House and Senate, then there are other, cheaper, more competitive places," one consultant said. "Do you want to try to get another $150 million for Texas or another $50 million to put Iowa or Montana or Nebraska in play?"
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has yet to list Texas as a top-tier battleground race.
"If Paxton wins the runoff, the race is on the battleground list," a person familiar with the PAC's thinking told Politico.
"If Cornyn makes it out, I wouldn't count it out [either]," the person said.
Republicans have dismissed the idea that Texas will finally turn blue.
"James Talarico thinks 'God is nonbinary,' wants to lay a welcome mat on our southern border, and would prioritize the rights of our 'trans community,' all things Texans will never vote for in November," said Samantha Cantrell, regional press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Sam Barron ✉
Sam Barron has almost two decades of experience covering a wide range of topics including politics, crime and business.
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