Last month, Portugal marked the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution which overthrew Portugal's conservative, pro-U.S., and anti-communist dictatorship and led to a center-left, democratically elected government a year later.
During the Cold War, the Nixon administration initially viewed the end of the Portuguese authoritarian regime as destabilizing and opening the door to a Soviet satellite in Western Europe with bad implications for Spain, Latin America, and Africa.
However, effective diplomacy by U.S. ambassador to Portugal, Frank Carlucci, played a crucial role in shaping U.S. policy, recognizing the new democratic government, accepting the end of Portugal's colonial role in Africa and Asia, and providing economic and security assistance to the new government.
Not well remembered outside of Portugal, the Carnation Revolution is seen as the beginning of the great "Third Wave" of expansion of democracies in the world from the early 1970s until the early 2000s.
From the 1930s through the 1950s, António de Oliveira Salazar, a conservative authoritarian backed by the military, led Portugal. He established the "Estado Novo," a regime that asserted absolute control over Portugal and its colonial empire in Africa and Asia.
Unlike typical military dictators, Salazar never served in the military but managed to secure his authority through political maneuvering and support from various institutions, including some within the military. Under his and his successor Marcelo Caetano's rule, Portugal experienced economic corporatism, political repression, and prolonged colonial wars in Africa. The country remained impoverished and isolated, with unrest brewing.
Salazar ruled until 1969 when a fall from a deck chair left him bedridden and incapacitated. Unknown to him, the Council of State removed him from power, yet out of fear that the knowledge of his removal would be fatal, they continued to let him believe he was in charge. He spent his remaining years conducting meaningless fake cabinet meetings and signing papers from his bed in a state of deceived authority.
The country was on the brink of unrest, which culminated in the Carnation Revolution of 1974, a military coup led by the Movimento das Forças Armadas (Armed Forces Movement), which rapidly evolved into a widespread civil resistance movement that sought democratic elections and resulted in the rapid decolonization of Portuguese territories.
This marked a significant turning point, not just in Portugal's political landscape but also in its national identity. The revolution, symbolized by the placement of carnations in the muzzles of soldiers' rifles, transitioned Portugal to democracy, leading to its eventual integration into the European Union and redefining its national identity away from colonialism and authoritarianism.
Under Salazar, Portugal held onto its colonies in Africa and Asia, including Angola, Mozambique, East Timor, and others, wrestling with its future identity — whether to remain a colonial power, transition to democracy, join the EU or NATO or continue as an autocratic or market economy. The decolonization had enormous impacts on its former colonies in Africa and Asia which are worthy of a separate post.
The U.S. policymakers during the Cold War looked at Portugal through the lens of a series of similar "democratic revolts" such as the one in Czechoslovakia in 1948, where a Soviet-backed coup ultimately installed a communist government. A change in Portugal was seen as foreshadowing what might happen in Spain next door. There were concerns about how communist guerrilla movements in the Americas might interpret events in Portugal as well.
The overthrow of the socialist government of Salvador Allende in Chile in 1973, less than a year before was also on the mind of U.S. policymakers. The Nixon administration worried a Portuguese Allende might emerge. The democratically elected President Allende's socialist government had nationalized industries and aligned closely with the Soviet Union and Cuba.
The U.S. had supported the military coup led by General Augusto Pinochet, who took power in September 1973. Ambassador Frank Carlucci, who started in January 1975, was sent to figure out what U.S. policy should be. Serving as U.S. ambassador was an extremely complex and high-stakes assignment surrounded by entrenched views favoring a return to authoritarian rule.
He deeply immersed himself in Portuguese society (it helped that he spoke Portuguese fluently), acknowledging its profoundly religious nature and its composition of rural small farmers. He recognized that Portuguese society did not want a communist dictatorship in the Soviet Union or a "communist adjacent" government like Allende's Chile. Rather, he concluded that Portugal aspired to modernize and integrate into Europe and might be willing to remain in NATO.
Carlucci was instrumental in shifting the perspective of key stakeholders in Washington. His experience as an effective foreign service officer and his enormous credibility at the highest levels of the Nixon administration gave him the skills to convince the Nixon administration not to interfere in the Carnation Revolution's aftermath. He advocated for a new U.S. approach in the last 15 years of the Cold War, one of supporting democratic transitions.
The impacts of the Carnation Revolution were felt far beyond Portugal. Given the context, the U.S. could have just as easily supported an anti-Carnation Revolution counter-coup by elements in the military. With Carlucci's leadership, the U.S. played a supporting but important role in the aftermath of the Carnation Revolution. Spain closely observed the unfolding events. The
democratic transition in Spain beginning in November 1975, along with the Carnation Revolution marked the start of 30 years of democratic transitions in Latin America, Asia, and the post-Soviet Union.
The Carnation Revolution is seen as the start of the "third wave of democracy."
Daniel F. Runde is a senior vice president, William A. Schreyer Chair, and director of the Project on Prosperity and Development at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. He is also the author of The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power (Bombardier Books, 2023).
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