Mo. Poll: GOP's Hawley Leads After McCaskill Opposes Kavanaugh

Sen. Claire McCaskill's, D-Mo., opposition to Supreme Court Justice-nominee Brett Kavanaugh has coincided with Republican challenger Josh Hawley's move into the lead in the latest Missouri Scout poll.

Other polls between McCaskill and Hawley have been tied in September, but likely general election voters polled here favor Hawley by 2 percentage points 48-46 percent. McCaskill announced her opposition to Kavanaugh on Sept. 9 and the Kavanaugh Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Thursday took place on the second day of the survey.

Most notable, 49 percent of likely voters say McCaskill's opposition to Kavanaugh makes them less likely to vote for her. Only 42 percent say it made them more likely to vote for her.

Other results from the poll related to the effects of the Kavanaugh confirmation:

• 47 percent of women are less likely to vote for her, while 42 percent were more likely now.
• 50 percent of men are less likely to vote for her, while 41 percent are more likely.
• 46 percent of nonpartisans were less likely to vote for her, while 39 percent were more likely.
• 85 percent of Republicans were less likely, and just 8 percent more likely – while 82 percent of Democrats were more likely and just 8 percent less likely.

Demographics of the poll were:

• 41 percent Republicans, 36 percent Democrats, and 23 percent nonpartisan.
• 87 percent are white, 9 percent African-American, 4 percent "other."
• 53 percent were women and 47 percent men.

The Missouri Scout poll surveyed 1,555 likely voters Sept. 26-27, was weighted to match anticipated voter turnout, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 point.

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