Poll: Most Expect Quick Election Results

Most people think the results of the Nov. 3 presidential election will be known quickly, despite warnings from several experts that it may take weeks to determine whether President Donald Trump has been reelected or Joe Biden will be heading to the White House, according to a new Axios/Ipsos poll. 

The poll, released Tuesday, shows that one in three Americans think the winner will be known on election night, and six out of 10 polled said they expect the winner will be announced within a few days. 

Also, according to the poll: 

• 36% say they think the winner will be named election night.
• 24% expect the announcement within a couple of days.
• 14% think it will take a week.
• 13% say it will take a few weeks.
• Smaller groups say it will take longer. 

However, Axios reports that the count is expected to take longer considering the demand for mail-in ballots because of coronavirus and because legal challenges could cause delays in determining a winner. 

There was not much difference between party lines when it came to saying when the results will be out:

• 32% of Democrats said there would be same-night results.
• 37% of Republicans expect same-night results. 
• More Republicans than Democrats think the result will take more than a month, but just by 5 percentage points. 

"The timestamp is less of an issue than the legitimacy of the results," said Cliff Young, president of Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs. "The real issue is, is the losing side going to think the other side's legitimate? 'We'll know when we know' is basically what they're saying. It hasn't been overly politicized yet."

The poll was conducted between August 38-31 by Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel and based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,100 general population adults aged 18 or older. It had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

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