Former President Donald Trump's goal of winning blue New York has become more difficult since Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden atop the Democratic Party's national ticket, according to Siena College poll results released Tuesday.
Harris leads Trump 53%-39% among likely New York state voters, the first time the Siena College poll has included the vice president against the former president in an election survey.
In late June, then-presumptive Democrat nominee Biden lead Trump by just 8 points (47%-39%).
The 81-year-old Biden announced July 21 he was ending his reelection bid.
With third-party candidates included in the newest poll, Harris leads Trump 49-37%. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. gets 7%, and three minor party candidates earn a total of 4%.
"The landscape has changed since the last Siena College poll," Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. "The change at the top of the Democratic ticket has had a noticeable, while not dramatic, effect on the horse race"
Trump still leads (47%-40%) among registered independent voters, but Harris has cut into the former president's advantage. Against Biden, the former president led 45%-28% among unaffiliated voters.
The former president also fares well among two traditionally Democrat-leaning groups — Jews and Hispanics. He virtually split the Jewish vote with Harris (50%-49%) and Latinos (47%-48%).
Harris outperforms Biden among women and Black voters and runs even with Trump in battleground New York City suburbs and upstate.
Trump had earned 29% of Black voters against Biden (59%) and only 11% against Harris (81%).
Among women, Harris leads Trump 64%-30%. Biden led Trump 51%-33% in June.
"Interestingly, it wasn't young voters that moved the needle [for Harris]," Greenberg said. "Among voters under 35, Harris leads 49-34%, down a little from the 51-32% lead Biden had in June. Harris' big pickup was among voters 35-54, who favor her 54-40%, after backing Trump 44-41% over Biden in June."
The vice president is backed by 86% of New York's Democrats, up from the 75% support Biden had in June.
Harris also is running even (47%-47%) with Trump in the city's suburbs, where many key battleground congressional races are located.
Trump trounced Biden by 13 percentage points in the suburbs in June.
This Siena College Poll was conducted July 28–Aug. 1 among 1,199 likely voters in New York. the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
Charlie McCarthy ✉
Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.
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