Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading President Donald Trump by seven points among likely voters in New Hampshire, a state Hillary Clinton won by less than half a percentage point in 2016.
Results from the Emerson College poll show:
- 52% of New Hampshire likely voters plan to vote for Biden, while 45% prefer Trump.
- Only 1% of those surveyed were undecided, and 2% said they planned to vote for someone else.
- Independents favor Biden over Trump, 54% to 43%.
- Among women, Biden has the advantage, 55% to 42%, while the two candidates are tied among men, 49% to 49%.
- The only age group Trump has the advantage in is voters aged 45-64, with whom he leads 50% to 47%.
- 75% of Trump voters say they are extremely excited about their candidate, while just 45% of Biden voters say the same. Only 14% of Trump voters say they are either mildly or not that excited, but 31% of Biden voters feel that way.
- 84% of those surveyed watched the first presidential debate on Tuesday. Among those who watched, 45% thought Biden had a stronger performance, 38% thought Trump did, and 17% were unsure.
- On the issue of appointing a replacement for late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 53% of respondents said the Senate should wait for the winner of the election before confirming a nominee. 83% of Republicans thought the Senate should proceed with the nominee. 84% of Democrats thought the Senate should wait, and 54% of independents said the same.
In comparing Biden’s lead to that of Clinton at this point in the race in 2016, Emerson College Polling director Spencer Kimball said a major difference was “the lack of a third-party candidate like Gary Johnson who saw his vote melt towards Trump, allowing Trump to gain on Clinton over the final weeks."
The poll surveyed 700 likely New Hampshire voters from Sept. 30 to Oct. 1 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
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