Pollster Nate Silver recently has called for a possible "landslide" win for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden against President Donald Trump in the presidential election this November.
"Joe Biden leads by around 9 points in our national polling average, and that lead has been growing. Of course, national polls don't really matter. Otherwise, Hillary Clinton would have been president," Silver said during a recent interview on ABC. "But it's worth noting that such a large lead is unusual in politics these days. Clinton never led by more than about 7 points, for example, and at this point in the 2008 race, Barack Obama led John McCain by around 6 points," Silver said.
"So while a Biden landslide is possible if he wins all these swing states, so is a Trump Electoral College victory, depending on which way the race moves between now and November," Silver said.
In current polls, Biden leads Trump 50.5& to 41.3%, according to FiveThirtyEight.
"So, Trump needs to make a comeback, and there is plenty of time for that, and maybe also get some help from the Electoral College," Silver added.
Silver wrote on his FiveThirtyEight blog that Biden leads in states with a total of 368 electoral votes compared to Trump leads in states with a worth 170 votes. He also said the race in the midwest is closer than usual.
"The race is a bit tighter," Silver said. "We have Biden up by a more modest 6 points in Wisconsin and 5 points in Pennsylvania. Biden also can't necessarily take Minnesota for granted. Trump nearly won it in 2016, and there’s been no polling there since the protest began in the state."
Silver added, "But there are a lot of issues for Trump. He's behind by 10 in Michigan, and Biden is doing surprisingly well in Florida, ahead by 7 points. If Biden were to win Florida, then he'd only need one state from that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin group. Or Biden could lose all of those Midwestern states but win Arizona, where our average has him up by 4. So, for the time being, no, I don't buy that we're going to have exactly the same map as in 2016. Instead, Trump is kind of fighting a two-front war, with problems in the Midwest on one hand and then Arizona and Florida on the other hand."
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