The latest FiveThirtyEight prediction model shows Republicans just barely favored to win the U.S. Senate over Democrats come the Nov. 8 midterm elections.
In an election simulation conducted 40,000 times, 100 possible outcomes were observed with Republicans winning the model 51% of the time compared to the Democrats' 49%.
"The Senate is currently a toss-up," explained the outlet. "The party that wins two of the three closest states will likely win the Senate majority. Republicans' two best pick-up opportunities are Nevada and Georgia ... meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat in Pennsylvania, but that race has gotten a lot tighter recently."
At the same time, "strong Democratic incumbents currently have an edge in Arizona and New Hampshire," with the races in North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin close, but "will likely result in Republican winners," the note added.
It comes as polls swung significantly in Republicans' favor towards the end of October.
Republican candidate Herschel Walker specifically is riding on comeback momentum in Georgia heading into Election Day. He is currently leading 4 out of 5 recent surveys against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock.
Meanwhile, Republican nominee Mehmet Oz experienced a post-debate bump over Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman for the state's Senate seat. The celebrity doctor is leading by 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in a recent InsiderAdvantage poll.
Most surprising is the narrowing of the Senate race in New Hampshire. Republican nominee Don Bolduc is within 3 points of Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the three most recent polls and is even leading one conducted by St. Anselm College 48% to 47%.
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