Karl Rove, former adviser in the George W. Bush White House, said that election forecasts from the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball are "sobering" for the Republican Party.
"Mr. Sabato and his colleagues now rate 34 Republican-held seats as 'toss-ups.' Four GOP seats ‘lean Democratic,’ two are ‘likely Democratic,’ and one is ‘safe Democratic.’ Only two Democrat-held seats are labeled toss-ups,’ though Mr. Sabato calls one open seat ‘safe Republican.’ If Democrats win the seats tilting their way and just over half of the toss-up races, they’ll take control of the House," Rove wrote in The Wall Street Journal.
Rove noted, however, that most Republicans whose races were downgraded to "toss-up" had more fundraising money on their hands than Democrats.
An increase in President Donald Trump’s approval rating among Republicans and other positive poll results "overshadowed the poll’s bad news," Rove said in The Journal —Trump’s job approval among independent voters fell to 40 percent.
"The midterm elections cannot be won with a base-only strategy. Republicans represent less than a third of the electorate… the president and his political team must turn their attention to independents, especially swing voters in suburban and rural districts who applaud his policies more than his behavior," Rove wrote.
The former adviser offered more advice for Trump and Republican candidates. "Team Trump must also remember that the 2018 campaign is about persuading swing voters, not winning the adulation of crowds at rallies. Offhand remarks or flip observations on the campaign trail will hurt candidates whose support the president needs in Congress," Rove wrote.
Trump must maintain the discipline he showed in the run-up to the 2016 election, Rove said. "That same discipline is necessary now if the president wants to avoid relentless investigations, obstruction and impeachment proceedings from a Democratic House," Rove wrote in The Journal.
Democrats now have a little better than a 50-50 chance to win the House, the Crystal Ball forecast reported.
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