Investors and betting markets expect President Donald Trump to win re-election in November, should the economy begin to recover after the coronavirus forced lockdowns across the country, Axios reports.
A poll from the financial services company UBS shows that most investors think Trump will win, even though most of them said they plan on voting for former Vice President Joe Biden. RealClearPolitics also shows that most betting websites have Trump holding a clear advantage over Biden, as does Bovada.
"We can’t expect that the economy is going to be in very good shape, although the trajectory ought to be pretty positive by November," said Steve Skancke, a former official in the Carter and Reagan administrations who worked in the Treasury Department and for the Council on Economic Affairs.
He added that it’s "more than likely we’re going to see a positive stock market and there will be positive job growth,” as it gets closer to the election.
Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Investor Service, said that the “wildcard” in the upcoming election is the coronavirus and a potential vaccine becoming available, which could make a key difference.
"And that’s a very significant wildcard both on the downside and the upside for people’s perceptions of how the president managed all this and how they’re going to vote in November."
However, some note that Trump’s emphasis on the economy and reopening businesses could backfire.
"These are times when the nation as a whole, the American people, will look to the president and the White House for policies that will get them out of this mess and all they’re seeing is rhetoric designed to get Trump re-elected," said Bernard Baumohl, The Economic Outlook Group’s chief economist.
He added that Trump “wants to see the economy be revived again but before it’s safe to do so. That I think is going to become somewhat catastrophic when the numbers start to pick up for that second wave" of infections.
Theodore Bunker ✉
Theodore Bunker, a Newsmax writer, has more than a decade covering news, media, and politics.
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