Tags: 2020 Elections | Donald Trump | Financial Markets | economy | models | popular vote | electoral college

Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

president donald trump gives a thumbs up before boarding air force one
President Donald Trump (Carolyn Kaster/AP)

By    |   Thursday, 17 October 2019 04:43 PM

Moody's Analytics economic models have missed just one presidential election since 1980 – when it slighted President Donald Trump in 2016 – and now three are pointing to an even larger Trump victory in 2020.

After all, "the economy, stupid," as James Carville legendarily said.

"If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi told CNBC. "It's about turnout."

Moody's three economic models project at least 289 electoral votes for Trump and as many a 351, per Zandi.

"Our 'pocketbook' model is the most economically driven of the three," Moody's reports. "If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition. This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election."

Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the electoral vote 304-227, and economic indicators suggest President Trump is going to win 55% of the popular vote barring a "significant downturn" in the economy, according to Oxford Economics, The Washington Post reported.

"While a wide range of issues have influenced presidential elections over the last few decades, from healthcare and foreign policy, to taxation and government spending, one factor has been constant: It's the economy, stupid," Oxford Economics' Greg Daco and James Watson wrote last week, per the Post.

The primary economic indicators for an incumbent's re-election are unemployment, inflation, and real disposable income growth – all pointing strong for Trump and outweighing "negative exhaustion factor" that is hurting him, according to the Oxford Economics.

Their modeling has projected the popular vote winner accurately in all but two elections since 1948, according to the Post.

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Politics
Moody's Analytics economic models have missed just one presidential election since 1980 – when it slighted President Donald Trump in 2016 – and now three are pointing to an even larger Trump victory in 2020.
economy, models, popular vote, electoral college
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2019-43-17
Thursday, 17 October 2019 04:43 PM
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