A prestigious political analyst says Democrats are within reach of winning back the House of Representatives, with 17 races shifting in their favor.
"Democrats are now a little better than 50-50 to win the House. This is the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House turnover," Kyle Kondick, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, reported on Tuesday.
"Election Day is getting closer, and the president’s approval rating is still largely stuck in the low 40s, a big red warning sign that has bedeviled the party of similarly-situated presidents in past midterms.
"A high number of open seats — the highest number of any postwar election save 1992 — give Democrats many more targets than the GOP."
This year, Republicans are defending 41 seats without an incumbent, while Democrats are defending only 22.
As well, Kondick said, fundraising is playing a part in tipping the odds.
"The second-quarter House fundraising reports came out last week, and the results are alarming for Republicans. It’s not that GOP fundraising, in total, was bad; Many vulnerable incumbents had very solid quarters," he said.
"Rather, it’s that Democratic fundraising was extraordinary, with dozens of Democratic candidates turning in blockbuster quarters and outraising their GOP opponents.
"Money isn’t everything, but one expects incumbents to have a clear financial edge on their opponents, and it’s not clear that some current GOP members will have even that with several months of buck-raking to go before the Nov. 6 election."
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