An open governor's seat in deep-red Iowa is drawing increased scrutiny as Democrats look to test GOP dominance in a state that has shifted decisively to the right.
Democrat Rob Sand is running to replace retiring Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds and is seeking to deliver his party its first win in an Iowa governor's race in nearly two decades.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently shifted the contest from the Republican column into the "toss-up" category, calling it a "barnburner" and pointing to Sand's fundraising strength and his status as one of Democrats' "strongest recruits of the cycle."
Sand, Iowa's state auditor and the only Democrat currently holding statewide office, has the advantage of avoiding a contested primary. On the Republican side, Rep. Randy Feenstra is seen as the leading contender but is locked in a crowded June primary.
"It's closer than I would have expected it to be, given Iowa's recent shift to the right," political analyst and Cornell College professor Megan Goldberg told The Hill.
That rightward shift has been unmistakable. President Donald Trump carried Iowa in all three of his White House campaigns, Republicans control every congressional seat, and the governor's mansion has remained in GOP hands since 2010.
Still, Reynolds's decision not to seek a third term opened the door to a rare open seat fight with no clear Republican successor apparent.
"The fact that there's not sort of a designated heir to the Reynolds administration, I think, has been a struggle for the Republican Party," Goldberg said. "There is a strong division on the Republican side. Sand has been the sort of presumptive [Democrat] nominee this whole time, and so he has the advantage of, he is already running the general election. He's not running a primary at the moment."
Sand narrowly won reelection as state auditor in 2022, making him the lone Democrat to win statewide that year. He entered the year with $13.2 million cash on hand, according to campaign finance filings, compared with Feenstra's $3.2 million.
Polling has been sparse but Cook cited internal surveys from both parties showing Sand leading in a hypothetical matchup with Feenstra.
"He's not using the kind of trite and tired rhetoric that has come out of Democratic candidates in the past, and he's kind of operating on a new framework, which is important in a state where you have 200,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats," longtime Iowa Democrat strategist Jeff Link told The Hill.
Republicans pushed back on the idea that Iowa is truly a toss-up.
"Do I see the Governor's Race as a toss up? Not with the Republican record," Reynolds wrote in a post on X last week.
"I think it's a pretty big stretch to say this is a true toss-up," Iowa GOP strategist Luke Martz told The Hill.
"This is going to be a serious race, but Republicans are going to work hard and do what they need to do, and I know we're going to win," Martz said, pointing to advantages including "the fact that GOP voter registration is high, Sand is weak, he's not running in a competitive primary and barely won his last statewide race against a nobody."
Other election handicappers remain more cautious. Sabato's Crystal Ball still rates the race as "leans Republican," while Inside Elections continues to label Iowa a GOP "lean."
Nicole Weatherholtz ✉
Nicole Weatherholtz, a Newsmax general assignment reporter covers news, politics, and culture. She is a National Newspaper Association award-winning journalist.
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