Tags: Afghanistan | Iraq | ISIS/Islamic State | Steve Malzberg Show | Syria | Richard Brennan Jr. | ISIS

Political Scientist: ISIS to Conquer Afghanistan If US Withdraws

By    |   Thursday, 30 Oct 2014 02:37 PM

The Islamic State (ISIS) will likely conquer Afghanistan if the U.S. completely withdraws its military presence, says Dr. Richard Brennan Jr., a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and former career Army officer with the Department of Defense.

"There should be some very significant lessons learned from what we did in Iraq," Brennan said Thursday on "The Steve Malzberg Show" on Newsmax TV.

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"You have a dysfunctional government … [and] an Afghan security force that also has the very same security deficiencies and capabilities that we saw on the Iraqi forces — except even worse.

"And we're making the decision to leave in two years so … if you want to go look back at 2010 in Iraq, we're doing the same thing over again. We're going to be leaving an Afghanistan not capable of maintaining the security gains that had been gained over the last 14 years."

And that would be an inviting in for terror groups.

"You needs to recognize that the Taliban has already sworn allegiance to the Islamic State and there are [similarities] ideologically between the Taliban, al-Qaida, the Islamic State [and] al-Nusra — so all these organizations are working at some level together," Brennan said.

"They compete with one another, but at the end of the day they work together and so what we're likely to see is an Islamic State in Afghanistan as well as having an Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and not having a regional strategy for how do we deal with this problem."

And a stronger Islamic State, Brennan says, is a danger to the world.

"This is a global ideological movement that's based upon a view of the world," he said.

"And as they start gaining success — and that's what we've seen in Iraq — it creates a breeding ground where these organizations can grow, can foster, can develop and at some point reach out into the United States and countries of Europe."

Brennan said the largest problem the U.S. faced when it left Iraq was not having a strategy to litigate the risk in departing.

"We need to be doing a fundamental reassessment at the strategic level of what the goals, objectives are in Afghanistan — how we'll continue to move forward on that and to keep some sort of residual force there for the prolonged time," he said.

"At a minimum, this administration should reconsider removing all forces by the end of 2016 to allow the next presidential administration, who is going to have to deal with the aftermath, an opportunity to shape that situation rather than having to live with the consequences."

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The Islamic State (ISIS) will likely conquer Afghanistan if the U.S. completely withdraws its military presence, says Dr. Richard Brennan Jr., a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and former career Army officer with the Department of Defense.
Richard Brennan Jr., ISIS, Islamic State, Afghanistan, United States
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Thursday, 30 Oct 2014 02:37 PM
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