Republicans look good two weeks before the midterm elections — but their retaking of the Senate is still not a sure thing, says Michael Barone, senior political analyst for The Washington Examiner.
"There's a significantly better than 50 percent chance that the Republicans will make the net gain of six seats they need for majority in the Senate.
"That's the likelihood, it's not the certainty," Barone, a polling expert, said Monday on "The Steve Malzberg Show" on
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"There's a nontrivial possibility that the Democrats will maintain their majority in the Senate," Barone said.
But he said it will be tough for Democrats to turn around their waning poll numbers in the next 14 days.
"We've got what is increasingly a straight-ticket voting country. We've got Democrats attempting to hold ... Senate seats in the six states carried by a wide margin by Mitt Romney in 2012," he said.
"That's when Obama's approval rating was at 50 percent; now it's at 42 percent. It's uphill sliding for the Democrats."
Asked whether Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, will be coaxed into seeking the 2016 GOP nomination for president — despite his insistence he won't — Barone said:
"It's possible, but it's unlikely. I don't expect Romney to run a third time for the presidency."
Still, Romney is a big name, and a number of Republicans think he could do well.
"You've got a Republican field of candidates — at least a dozen potentials — who are not well known to the nation's voters, at least beyond their own state. None of them are accumulating a lot of votes," Barone said.
"This isn't when you had candidates like Ronald Reagan or Nelson Rockefeller, who were widely known across the country and identify with certain ideas."
Barone is co-author with Chuck McCutcheon of
"The Almanac of American Politics 2014," published by The University of Chicago Press.
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