Chuck Todd said Saturday that the fate of the midterm elections may hinge less on raw economic data and more on whether voters actually feel improvement in their daily lives by late spring.
Appearing on Newsmax’s "America Right Now," the host of "The Chuck ToddCast" and former moderator of "Meet the Press" said recent positive indicators, easing inflation, steady job growth, and lower gas prices, have not yet fully registered with voters.
"I don’t think people feel it yet," Todd said.
"Look, these numbers in some ways, the inflation numbers are just coming down.
"Let’s see what the tax refund situation is, meaning do people have extra money or does that money get eaten up by electric bills and higher costs and health care, et cetera?" he said.
Todd argued that economic perception often lags behind economic reality, warning that timing will be decisive.
"One thing we do know historically, when it comes to trying to judge what economy do voters vote on in November, do they vote on the economy that’s taking place in that moment, or do they vote on what they feel like the economy is, which usually is about a four- to six-month lagging indicator?" he said.
Citing the 1992 election, Todd noted that "Bill Clinton won.
The economy was the reason, it was a recovering economy.
The public didn’t feel it until after the election, harming George H.W. Bush."
"So timing is everything," he added.
"What do people feel like this economy is like on Memorial Day?
"And that will tell me whether Republicans have a boxer’s chance here to sort of push back on history."
Todd also addressed Gallup’s decision to stop publishing presidential job approval polling, calling it "a mistake."
"Presidential approval ... you talk to any pollster, it’s a good way to ground your poll up from survey to survey," he said, adding that trend lines matter because "different pollsters have different methodologies."
Turning to the battle for control of Congress, Todd said swing districts will ultimately decide the majority.
"It’s difficult on the House level" amid ongoing redistricting fights, he said, but pointed to Iowa as a key indicator.
"Three of them are in play… of those House seats, basically swing districts, the party that wins two of them has a better shot at being in the majority."
"If Democrats think they’re going to be a majority party, they’ve got to make inroads in places like Iowa," Todd said.
"They can’t do this on the back of the mid-Atlantic."
As both parties brace for a closely contested midterm cycle, Todd’s message was clear: economic momentum alone may not decide the outcome, voter sentiment at just the right moment will.
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