GOP's Senate Majority at Risk, Super PAC Warns

A prominent Republican super PAC is warning that the GOP is at risk of losing its Senate majority in the 2026 midterm elections.

"As it stands today, our view is that the Republican Senate majority is at risk," Emily Seidel, senior adviser at Americans for Prosperity Action, and Nathan Nascimento, the group's executive director, wrote in a memo obtained by Politico.

"Our internal polling in several battleground states and one-on-one conversations with voters show that for the first time, Democrats are more trusted on the economy and inflation," Seidel and Nascimento added.

The two warned that Republicans must improve their messaging on reducing the cost of living.

"The window to act is now," they wrote. "A narrow environment combined with a relentless cost-of-living contrast is a credible recipe for a progressive takeover — unless Republicans campaign and lead on a governing agenda serious enough to earn the trust of independents and re-engage a frustrated base."

"Every policy fight, every floor speech, every campaign event should answer one question — what are you doing to lower the cost of living for working families?" the two added. "Energy. Groceries. Housing. Childcare. Wages that go further."

Democrats must flip four seats to recapture the Senate and are eyeing seats in Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, Alaska, Iowa and Maine as potential pickup opportunities while defending seats in Michigan and Georgia.

Earlier this month, The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election newsletter, shifted four Senate races toward Democrats.

North Carolina's Senate race between former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley moved from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democrat." The seat is now held by retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.

Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., saw his race move from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democrat."

Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, saw his race against former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, move from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up."

Nebraska GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts saw his race against independent Dan Osborn move from "Solid Republican" to "Lean Republican."

"With an increasingly sour national environment for Republicans, the Senate battlefield is shifting in Democrats' favor," wrote Jessica Taylor, Senate editor for the website.

"But due to the difficulty of the map, winning back a majority still remains a tall order," Taylor added. "The GOP remain the narrowing favorites to retain the upper chamber. However, that outlook could change in the coming months."

• Election Handicapper Shifts Four Senate Races to Dems
• Dems Pour Cash Into Key Alaska, Pa. Midterm Races