With economic sanctions taking a toll on Russia, some Kremlin insiders are questioning Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to go to war with Ukraine.
In Russia, dissent is impossible and polling of public opinion is unreliable. Although "public" support for Putin apparently remains strong, a few business tycoons have made veiled statements questioning the Kremlin's strategy, according to Bloomberg News' interviews with 10 unidentified sources.
"The skeptics were surprised by the speed and breadth of the response by the U.S. and its allies, with sanctions freezing half of the central bank’s $640 billion in reserves and foreign companies ditching decades of investment to shut down operations almost overnight, as well as the steadily expanding military support for Kyiv that’s helping its forces to blunt the Russian advance," Bloomberg reported.
Countries are now imposing sanctions on Russia's energy sector, which has the world's largest natural gas reserves and is the third-biggest oil producer in the world, with about 12% of global oil production, according to Business Insider. India and China continue to buy cheap Russian oil, Business Insider reported.
Putin is apparently discounting the economic impact of the sanctions and is determined to continue the fight against Ukraine in the eastern Donbas region so as not to be seen as weak. He is surrounded by a close-knit circle of hardline advisers.
The decision to invade Ukraine to prevent it from joining NATO was made by Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov, and Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia's Security Council, according to Bloomberg.
Putin's critics see no sign that the autocrat is ready to end the invasion, given the losses, or is willing to make concessions needed to reach a cease-fire. Given his total domination of the political system, alternative views take root only in private, Bloomberg observed.
The Kremlin miscalculated in the early days of the offensive and expected quicker military progress as well as broader support among Ukrainian troops and officials. Instead, Russia had to withdraw forces to the eastern part of Ukraine and incurred heavy losses.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a former comedy actor, has been successful in galvanizing international support and has appealed for more military supplies.
The Federal Security Service in Russia, formerly the KGB, expected the fighting would last no more than a few weeks, according to Bloomberg. Anatoly Chubais, the Kremlin's climate envoy, left the country, and Putin removed him from his post.
Others who sought to leave, including central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina, were told they had to stay on to help manage the economic fallout. Senior officials have denounced those who left the country as "traitors."
Yachts, properties, and other holdings of oligarchs were seized under sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies. A few tycoons have been critical of the war, without mentioning Putin, Bloomberg observed.
Metals tycoon Oleg Deripaska called the war "insanity" in late March, saying it could have ended "three weeks ago through reasonable negotiation." He warned fighting could continue for "several more years," Bloomberg reported.
Russia already classifies military deaths as state secrets even in times of peace and has not updated its official casualty figures in Ukraine for nearly four weeks, Reuters reported.
But given the nature of Putin's regime, Tatiana Stanovaya of political consultant R.Politik, said: "There's no room for disagreement or discussion, everyone must just get on with it and implement the president's orders and as long as Putin keeps the situation under control, people will follow him."
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