Putin Faces Conflicting Polling Following Kursk Invasion

Russian President Vladimir Putin has seen his support among the Russian people waiver following the attack by Ukrainian forces in the city of Kursk, The Hill reported.

On Aug. 6, Ukraine launched a massive counter offensive into Russia, claiming close to 450 square miles of Russian territory. Many observers have been expecting Putin to launch a massive counter strike, but as August comes to a close, he has yet to fully respond.

"Putin is a very risk averse individual. He is extremely calculated, and he oftentimes really prefers not to make urgent, rash political decisions that would specifically impact the health of his regime," Kateryna Stepaneko, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, told The Hill.

Stepaneko noted that Putin is doing his best to downplay the assault, despite it being the first time since World War II that Russia has been successfully attacked inside its own borders.

"You would think that a country that has some of its territories face an incursion — that has been going on for over 20 days at this point — you would think that a country would use that as an opportunity to declare martial law, to declare mobilization, to declare war against Ukraine. But Russia didn’t do that," she said. "The biggest reason is Putin is really trying to downplay this narrative."

Analysts suspect that Putin is biding his time saying this week’s air campaign by Russia via hundreds of drones and missiles was the first step in downplaying the Kursk invasion.

The outlet cited a poll by the Russia-based Levada Center which noted that many Russians fear mobilization if Putin seeks to take back the lost territory. According to the Levada polling of 1,600 people, the majority were concerned about Ukraine’s invasion in Kursk.

Jonathan Teubner at Filterlabs.AI, a firm that uses AI to track public opinion, showed negative sentiments toward Putin among media in regions where Russia has recruited soldiers and military production has increased.

"If Putin’s prestige and popularity fall in these key regions, especially if Russians feel that the war is going badly, the Kremlin may find it more difficult to fill its military ranks," Tuebner said.

Conversely, the Levada poll found that Putin’s popularity among the Russian people remain virtually unchanged at close to 85% support.

"Putin is telling his society that Kursk is not significant enough to look away from the initiative that Russia has on the battlefield in Ukraine, and that Kursk is not that significant to call up mobilization and destabilize the society from within, and I think that message is resonating," Stepanenko said.