Telegraph Poll: Trump Leads in Most Swing States

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leads presumptive Democrat nominee Kamala Harris in every swing state but one and is tied in another, according to a new poll by The Telegraph.

The poll, conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, is the first release of swing states since President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Harris.

The poll found Trump leading Harris in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Harris leads Trump in Minnesota. They are tied in Wisconsin, according to the survey published Thursday.

Florida's inclusion as a swing state is curious; Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020, and Florida hasn't elected a Democrat governor since Lawton Chiles in 1994. In fact, only Barack Obama has carried Florida in a presidential election this century.

Regardless, Trump owns an 8-point lead over Harris in Florida, according to the poll. RealClearPolitics tracks seven states as battleground states, excluding Florida and Minnesota.

The results of the other battleground states, according to The Telegraph poll:

Arizona: Trump leads 46% to 43%
Georgia: Trump leads 47% to 42%
Michigan: Trump leads 44% to 41%
Minnesota: Harris leads 44% to 41%
Nevada: Trump leads 45% to 43%
North Carolina: Trump leads 46% to 43%
Pennsylvania: Trump leads 46% to 42%
Wisconsin: Trump and Harris are tied at 44%

The survey of hypothetical presidential candidates includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, but not independent candidate Cornel West. Kennedy garners 7% of the vote in Michigan and 6% in Minnesota, his biggest state impacts, according to the poll. He is confirmed to be on the ballot in both of those states.

"Kennedy generally takes more votes from the Democratic ticket than the Republican ticket, although a marginally higher percentage of 2020 Trump voters (5%) than 2020 Biden voters (3%) in Wisconsin plan to vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in 2024," Redfield & Wilton wrote in its analysis.

Further, Redfield & Wilton reported that "[i]n seven of the nine swing states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina and Pennsylvania), more 2020 Biden voters are switching to Trump than 2020 Trump voters are switching to Harris."

The survey found that swing state voters overwhelmingly said they supported Biden's decision to exit the race, ranging from plus-50% in Georgia to plus-62% in Wisconsin.

"Pluralities of voters in all nine swing states polled (40%-46%) would prefer Kamala Harris to be the Democratic party's nominee, while between 26% and 32% of swing state voters would prefer the party's nominee to be someone else," Redfield & Wilton wrote.

Redfield & Wilton surveyed 6,927 likely voters in the nine states from July 22-24.