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Tags: poll | donald trump | ron desantis | gop | nevada | caucuses | nikki haley

Emerson Poll: Trump Pulls 65-Point Lead Over DeSantis

By    |   Tuesday, 09 January 2024 10:04 AM EST

Former President Donald Trump is carrying a 65-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in February's Nevada caucuses, according to a new Emerson College poll.

The poll of 277 likely Republican caucus voters, released Tuesday, showed Trump with a commanding lead of 73%, compared to the second-place finisher, DeSantis, with 8%, reports The Hill.

Nikki Haley, a former South Carolina governor and United Nations Ambassador, was not included in the poll because she opted to appear on the Nevada primary ballot, not the party caucus.

The Emerson poll's Republican portion had a credibility interval, similar to a poll's margin of error, of plus or minus 5.9 percentage points.

The poll also included a sample of 435 likely Democrat primary voters, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.7%.

In Nevada, the Republican Party will hold its caucus on Feb. 8, ignoring a plan under a state law to hold the presidential preference primary two days earlier, on Feb. 6.

According to state party rules, GOP candidates are barred from participating in the caucus if they are included in the primary.

"With Nikki Haley opting to be named on the state primary ballot on Feb. 6 rather than the party caucus on Feb. 8, Trump does not have much competition on the ballot," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, commented in the report.

The poll also determined that more Republican voters plan to vote in the state primary as compared to participating in the caucus.

However, the Nevada Republican Party is saying the caucus is the only place presidential candidates can earn delegates to the Republican National Convention, complicating matters for Haley.

"Candidates that chose to appear on the state-run primary ballot did so knowing that decision meant they could not earn delegates by appearing on the caucus ballots," the state party's site says, while including Haley among primary candidates.

Meanwhile, in the Emerson Poll, other remaining candidates marked results in the single digits below DeSantis:

  • Vivek Ramaswamy, 6%.
  • Chris Christie, 4%.
  • Asa Hutchinson and Ryan Binkley, 1% or less.
  • Undecided, 8%.

DeSantis and Haley are in contention for a second-place finish in the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses. DeSantis has a slight lead over Haley in Iowa, but Haley is ahead of him in polls in New Hampshire, which will hold the nation's first primary.

The two candidates will square off in the party's fifth debate, which is being moderated by CNN and scheduled for Wednesday at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa.

Trump will not be participating in the debate but instead will appear Wednesday in a town hall event scheduled by Fox News.

Polling averages from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill find DeSantis with a slight edge in Iowa, the first state to vote in the GOP presidential nominating cycle, while Haley holds second place in New Hampshire, which hosts the first-in-the-nation primary.

Meanwhile, the poll showed Trump and President Joe Biden in a dead heat, with Trump scoring 47% to Biden's 45% in a hypothetical election scenario.

Eight percent of the voters remained undecided.

The numbers show that a race between Trump and Biden had tightened since October, when Trump led Biden by 46% to 39%, with 14% undecided.

But when independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein were added to a hypothetical ballot, Trump's lead grew to 42% to 39% for Biden. Five percent of those polled said they would support Kennedy, with 1% saying they would back West or Stein.

Sandy Fitzgerald

Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics. 

© 2024 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

Former President Donald Trump is carrying a 65-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in February's Nevada caucuses, according to a new Emerson College poll.
poll, donald trump, ron desantis, gop, nevada, caucuses, nikki haley, debate, iowa
Tuesday, 09 January 2024 10:04 AM
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